California’s Driest February and Coming Drought?

February has been amazingly dry in California, if anyone hasn’t noticed.  No precipitation at all in February, a dry forecast, about 51% of seasonal Sacramento Valley precipitation (a bit less for the San Joaquin and Tulare basins), and only about half (45-57%) of normal snowpack for this time of year.  Unless March is wet, this dry year seems likely to advance the onset of the fire season and threaten forest health this year.

Reservoir levels are still not bad for this time of year.  Many are fuller than average, perhaps reflecting some snowpack loss.  Some other reservoirs are a bit low.  This is inherent in the first year of a drought, low precipitation and snowpack, but mostly ok reservoirs.

Groundwater has recovered somewhat from the previous 2012-2016 drought, better in the north, but less in the state’s more overdraft-prone areas in the San Joaquin and Tulare basins.