So far, October and November 2019 has been the driest (or almost the driest) beginning of any recorded water year with almost zero precipitation. (The 2020 water year began October 1, 2019 – so you might have missed a New Year’s party already.)
Should we worry about a drought yet?
It’s been warmer than normal. It’s been drier than normal. For most of the region, it hasn’t rained more than a sprinkle or a brief thunderstorm here or there in about six months.
Northern California weather has done a relatively quick 180 in 2019. Heavy rain coming via “atmospheric river” systems drenched the Sacramento Valley, created some flood concerns and filled reservoirs to healthy levels this January through March.
But what spring 2019 had plenty of, fall 2019 has had nearly zilch.
Little rain has fallen in California since the start of the water year on Oct. 1, putting signs of drought back on the map.
The federal Drought Monitor Map, a mechanism to measure drought that’s mainly used in agriculture, shows 81% of the state as abnormally dry. A small portion (4%) of the map near the Arizona border is designated as “moderate drought.”
When California’s historic five-year drought finally relented a few years ago the tally of dead trees in the Sierra Nevada was higher than almost anyone expected: 129 million. Most are still standing, the dry patches dotting the mountainsides.
But some trees did survive the test of heat and drought. Now, scientists are racing to collect them, and other species around the globe, in the hope that these “climate survivors” have a natural advantage that will allow them to better cope with a warming world.
California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the United States—it yields a third of the produce grown in the country and is the world’s largest supplier of canned tomatoes. But a seven-year drought has threatened the viability of the valley’s farmland, and many rural communities have suffered greatly as a result.
Joris Debeij’s short documentary When a Town Runs Dry offers a window into the front lines of the water crisis. In the film, which is based on Diana Marcum’s Pulitzer Prize–winning reporting, we hear from several residents of Stratford, a farming community in which much of the land was decimated by the drought.
To guard against volatility in the amount of state water it receives, Santa Maria and several other Central Coast Water Authority members are planning to claim an additional 12,214 acre-feet of state water that was set aside decades ago.
The move — which would be funded by issuing a $42 million bond — would increase Santa Maria’s annual right to state water from 17,820 to over 27,000 acre-feet each year.
San Diego County residents strongly support efforts to continue improving water supply reliability and they largely trust local water agencies to do that work, according to a regional public opinion survey released today by the San Diego County Water Authority.
An overwhelming majority (94%) of respondents favor expanding the use of recycled water for agriculture and irrigation, and 79% support purifying wastewater to drinking water standards with advanced treatment technologies.
In addition, 71% of respondents back efforts by the Water Authority to store water in Lake Mead on the Colorado River for use during droughts and emergencies, and to help avoid water shortages on the river.
Nearly two-thirds (64%) of respondents understand that providing safe and reliable water supplies is more costly in San Diego than many other parts of the country, and many indicate a willingness to make additional investments. More than 6 in 10 (64%) residents say they would pay $5 more a month to increase reliability and enhance local control over water supplies, with 50% showing willingness to pay $7.50 more per month, and nearly half (45%) saying they would pay $10 more each month.
“Our region’s residents appreciate the importance of maintaining safe, reliable water supplies and the role of public water agencies to support our $231 billion economy,” said Water Authority Board Chair Jim Madaffer. “They also recognize that continuing to develop locally controlled water supplies – while making efficient use of existing sources – is critical for our future.”
The survey also makes it clear that San Diego County residents remain committed to using water efficiently even though the region’s water supplies are sufficient to meet demands. Ninety-two percent of respondents agree that water-use efficiency is a civic duty, and 70% say they have taken actions to reduce their home water use in the past 12 months.
The Water Authority has performed periodic public opinion research over the past two decades to gauge residents’ knowledge and attitudes about water issues. The latest survey of 1,063 adults in San Diego County was conducted by Encinitas-based True North Research from Aug. 16 to 27, and results were provided to the agency’s Board of Directors during today’s regular monthly meeting.
Survey results show that affordable housing is the most prominent top-of-mind issue (31%) in the region, followed by homelessness (21%) and cost of living (12%). Only 3% of respondents mentioned water-related topics such as drought, cost or quality as the most important top-of-mind issue facing San Diego County. Four years ago, when statewide drought conditions were peaking, water issues ranked first (33%).
The latest survey also indicates that almost everyone agrees that a safe, reliable water supply is important for a healthy regional economy (94%) and San Diego’s desirable quality of life (93%). That’s a key tenet of the Water Authority’s ongoing Brought to You by Water outreach and education program, and an increase from prior years.
When it comes to supply reliability in San Diego County, more than half (52%) of respondents expect it to improve or stay about the same over the next year. Residents were divided in their optimism over the region’s long-term reliability. While 42% expected supplies to improve or remain the same over the next 20 years, 48% thought supply conditions would worsen. However, nearly two-thirds (65%) of respondents trust local water agencies to ensure a reliable water supply over the long-term.
The 2019 survey also explored issues of cost. The survey showed that few residents know how much they pay for a gallon of tap water. After being told that the retail cost of municipal tap water in the San Diego region is about one cent per gallon, nearly 6 in 10 (58%) respondents said tap water is an excellent (29%) or good (29%) value, with 24% percent saying it is a fair value.
On the topic of water rates, nearly 6 in 10 (59%) survey respondents agree that additional increases may be necessary to increase the reliability of our region’s water supply.
The U.S. state of California is facing the biggest water reforms in its history after crippling drought exposed major failings in the water management behind the mighty food bowl.
A better understanding and forecasting of atmospheric rivers could improve flood control and water management in California.
The 2019-20 California state budget includes $9.25 million to pay for research into how the state Department of Water Resources can more accurately track the intensity and landfall locations of atmospheric rivers. About half of the state’s annual rainfall and 90 percent of its flooding come from such events.
“Improved forecasting and monitoring of atmospheric river storms would benefit not only California, but the Southwest, in managing our water supply,” said Kelley Gage, director of water resources for the San Diego County Water Authority. “With better forecasting, water managers could also prepare and plan for flooding events caused by the atmospheric rivers.”
The science behind atmospheric rivers. Graphic: NOAA
Atmospheric rivers are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere – like rivers in the sky – that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics, according to NOAA. When the atmospheric rivers make landfall, they release the water vapor in the form or rain or snow.
“The rivers can stretch from 250 to 370 miles wide and carry a water amount more than 7 times the volume of the Mississippi River,” said Alexi Schnell, water resources specialist with the Water Authority.
The research funds were allocated to the Department of Water Resources to “improve observations, forecasts and decisions in support of atmospheric river precipitation events” as part of the DWR’s Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program.
Atmospheric Rivers in Water Year 2019. Graphic: Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes
A new study led by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego suggests that a new regime of wet and dry extremes is emerging in California. The study shows that the projected increase of extreme precipitation is likely to be caused by streams of moisture in the sky known as atmospheric rivers.
The study was published July 9 in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.
“California already has the most volatile water resources in the country,” according to a news release from Scripps. “Scripps scientists discovered that the state’s precipitation, as it becomes less frequent but preferentially stronger, will vacillate even more wildly between extremes of drought and flooding as a consequence of climate change.”
The federal Bureau of Reclamation, the Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, NOAA, the U.S. Geological Survey, and NASA funded the study, “Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers.”
“As Mediterranean climate regions around the world are becoming more subtropical, the dry season is expanding. California is no exception,” said Alexander Gershunov, a climate scientist at Scripps. “What is exceptional about California is that the heavy precipitation is projected to become more extreme. We knew this from our past work. Now we have identified the mechanism responsible for this bolstering of extremes, and that gives us a more nuanced understanding of what to expect from future hydroclimate and a clearer interpretation of ongoing changes.”
For the year-to-date 2019, the precipitation total was 19.05 inches, 3.74 inches above average, and the wettest such period in the 125-year record. Graphic: NOAA
During the 2018-19 winter, atmospheric river events significantly increased snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and the Rocky Mountains. Both areas are key sources of water supply for the Southwest, including California and San Diego County.
Precipitation in the contiguous U.S. was above average from January to June 2019, according to a NOAA climate report released this week. The report said the 19.05 inches during the six-month period was 3.74 inches above average and the wettest such period in the 125-year record.
The January-to-June 2019 precipitation map showed California’s statewide precipitation was “above average” and “much above average.”
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
