One week, it’s fires; the next, it’s feet upon feet of snow. In the middle of January, high winds and dry conditions sparked wildfires throughout California. Now, an atmospheric river is taking aim at the state with a huge amount of water. In the Sierra Nevada and Lake Tahoe region, forecasters are calling for between three and six feet of snow by the end of this week.
One of the biggest coastal wind storms in years walloped San Diego County Monday and ushered in heavy snow that blanketed the region’s mountains and driving rain that nudged wildland areas away from the precipice of drought.
San Diegans got a taste of winter weather Saturday.
“We were actually excited when we saw the rain,” said Forest Padilla, a San Diego resident.
The cold showers lasted throughout most of the day.
“It’s nice to have the rain every once in a while,” said Travis Robertson-Howell, a San Diego resident.
But it may be even nicer to have it a little more often. The latest drought map from the National Integrated Drought Information System showed much of the San Diego region is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.
Luckily it doesn’t appear to show drought in the area. The rest of the state isn’t so lucky. According to the map, drought exists in some way in approximately 95 percent of the state. The state was drought-free at this time last year.
“At this point in the winter it is still fairly early,” said Mike Lee, public affairs manager with the San Diego County Water Authority.
Lee says it’s too soon to raise concerns.
“Just a few storms can radically improve and change the water supply conditions in the snowpack in the mountains,” said Lee. “That can happen in February, sometimes in March, and even April.”
And even if we don’t get all the rain we need, he says the county has a back-up plan.
“Every five years we go through a rigorous planning process at the county water authority and with all of our member agencies across the region to ensure that even if we were to have three, four dry years in a row that we would still have enough safe reliable water to meet our region’s needs,” said Lee.
So for now, Lee says San Diegans can enjoy the wet weather as he expects more is to come.
The halfway point of meteorological winter is Friday, Jan. 15, and while that might seem like the light at the end of the tunnel for those tired of snow and cold, many cities still average more than half their season’s snowfall after this date.
Winter in meteorological record-keeping is from Dec. 1 to Feb. 28. But for some parts of the nation, snowy conditions are still possible deep into March and even April.
A dry start to California’s water year is reflected in the season’s first snow survey of the Sierra Nevada snowpack. The statewide snowpack is 52% of average for Dec. 30. On average, the Sierra snowpack supplies about 30% of California’s water needs.
The California Department of Water Resources manual survey at Phillips Station recorded 30.5 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 10.5 inches, which is 93% of the January 1 average at that location, according to DWR officials. The snow water equivalent,or SWE, measures the amount of water contained in the snowpack and is a key component of DWR’s water supply forecast.
While the Phillips Station measurement was positive, DWR’s electronic readings from 130 stations placed throughout California show the statewide snowpack’s SWE is 5 inches, or 52% of the December 30 average.
“The snow survey results reflect California’s dry start to the water year and provide an important reminder that our state’s variable weather conditions are made more extreme by climate change,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “We still have several months left to bring us up to average, but we should prepare now for extended dry conditions. The Department, along with other state agencies and local water districts, is prepared to support communities should conditions remain dry.”
“The first snowpack survey of the water year points to California’s climate variability, which is why a diverse water portfolio is needed to provide a reliable supply,” said Goldy Herbon, San Diego County Water Authority senior water resources specialist. “The Water Authority and its 24 member agencies have successfully diversified water sources, and continue to expand those sources, to ensure our supply meets the needs of the region’s 3.3 million people and its $245 billion economy.”
The supply sources include water from the Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant, where ten workers volunteered to live on-site in 2020 to keep the water flowing during the coronavirus pandemic.
When the Sierra Nevada snowpack melts, it feeds into rivers and is stored in reservoirs across California. Reservoirs are tapped as needed during the dry months. However, state officials again said that climate change is affecting California’s snowpack, as more precipitation falls as rain and less as snow. And they urged Californians to make water conservation a “way of life.”
“Today’s survey brought a first glimpse of how the state’s snowpack is shaping up, but there is a lot of winter still ahead,” said Sean de Guzman, chief of DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Section. “While the dry conditions during late summer and fall have led to a below average snowpack, it is still encouraging to have the amount of snow we already have with two of the three typically wettest months still to come.”
DWR conducts five snow surveys at Phillips Station each winter near the first of each month, January through April and, if necessary, May. Guzman said the next survey is scheduled for February 2.
Sean De Guzman (R), chief of the California Department of Water Resources Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Section, and Jeremy Hill, DWR water resources engineer, conduct the first snow survey of the 2021 season at Phillips Station in the Sierra Nevada. Photo: Kelly M. Grow/DWR
A Monday storm that dumped much-needed rain and snow across San Diego County was expected to peter out overnight into Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service in San Diego.
Monday’s storm brought the county’s first significant traces of precipitation since the first week of November, when a North Pacific storm dropped several inches of snow in the mountains and some rain off to the west.
So far this water year that began Oct. 1 has been treating most of Utah like a miserly scrooge, stingy with storms and the accompanying snow. The southern half of the state, as of Monday, was sitting in the 60% of normal accumulation of snowpack, and the Lower Sevier River Basin at 36% of normal is experiencing abysmally dry conditions.
Cold weather is headed toward Northern California, with forecasters warning of severe weather in the Sierra Nevada as the first snow of the season touches down on the peaks, and frosty temperatures in the Sacramento Valley.
As Americans hunker down to weather the pandemic this winter at home, nearly every facet of life will remain upended to safeguard against the coronavirus. Millions are working from home and learning remotely and even holiday gatherings will look a lot different this year. Staying closer to home may mean fewer weather worries for commutes and disruptions to daily activities, but AccuWeather has you covered on what you can expect weather-wise as we navigate uncertain times.
An efficient, low-resolution machine learning model can usefully predict the global atmospheric state as much as three days out.
