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Spring Outlook: Drought to Expand Amid Warmer Conditions

NOAA issued its U.S. Spring Outlook today and for the second year in a row, forecasters predict prolonged, persistent drought in the West where below-average precipitation is most likely. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — part of the National Weather Service — is also forecasting above-average temperatures for most of the U.S. from the Desert Southwest to the East Coast and north through the Midwest to the Canadian border from April to June.

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Carlsbad Desalination Plant Shields Region From Megadrought

As the worst drought in 1,200 years grips the West, the Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant is protecting the San Diego region with 50 million gallons a day of drought-proof water.

Completed in 2015, the plant was built before the period of increasing inflation that’s driving up prices for water infrastructure projects that are just starting. That means the desal plant is safeguarding the region’s economy and quality of life today at a lower cost than it would be to build now.

Affordability and reliability

In fact, water from the plant costs average homeowners about $5 more a month – about the cost of a latte. The San Diego County Water Authority buys water produced at the plant from Poseidon Water under a contract that protects ratepayers. Because the plant was developed as a public-private partnership, key risks associated with the construction and operation of the plant were shifted to Poseidon.  Accordingly, water is paid for as it is produced and prices adjust predictably based on contractually specified indices.  Ratepayers do face less predictable cost impacts from rising energy prices, but that is no different from any other new publicly owned water supply project.

Drought-proof supply

“The Carlsbad plant is an important regional asset and its value is highlighted by the ongoing megadrought,” said Jeremy Crutchfield, a water resources manager for the Water Authority. “The cost of water is higher than conventional sources, but so is the reliability – and that’s never looked more important than it does today.”

On the environmental front, Poseidon is committed to keeping the Carlsbad plant carbon-neutral through state-of-the-art energy recovery devices, mitigation projects and securing carbon credits. In addition, upgrades to the plant’s intake and discharge systems will be completed by the end of 2023, in compliance with a 2019 permit.

Desalination plant-Top Stories of 2020-intakes

Three new fish-friendly seawater intake pumps, recently commissioned at the Carlsbad Desalination Plant, are among the most environmentally advanced intake pumps in the world. The pumps are part of a broader effort to ensure the long-term health of the marine environment near the Plant, which sits on the shores of Agua Hedionda Lagoon. Photo: San Diego County Water Authority

Another positive: There’s no signs of plant impacts to the coastal waters, which are protected by some of the world’s most aggressive standards through the California Coastal Act and the California Ocean Plan. While the facility was cited by regulators in 2019, importantly, no enforcement action was taken as regulators recognized the problems were with formulas in the permit and not the actual plant discharges.

At the start of operations, project managers also navigated a series of ramp-up challenges common with any large industrial facility. Since then, Poseidon has made capital improvements to its pretreatment system and invested in advanced monitoring and control technologies at company expense.

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The Carlsbad Desalination Plant uses reverse osmosis to produce approximately 10% of the region’s water supply; it is a core supply regardless of weather conditions, and it is blended with water from other sources for regional distribution. Photo: San Diego County Water Authority

Carlsbad Desalination Plant is part of diversified water supply portfolio

In 2021, the plant produced more than 51,000 acre-feet of water and the volumes are projected to be at least 50,000 acre-feet in 2022 as well. That’s enough water to meet more than 10% of regional demand – which is met through a diversified portfolio of conserved water, groundwater, recycled water and other sources.

“Desalination remains a valuable tool for our community when it comes to ensuring safe and reliable water supplies no matter the weather,” Crutchfield said.  “It has shown its value by generating nearly 90 billion gallons over the past six years, and I’m confident it will continue to do so in the years ahead.”

Why Your Water Bill is Rising

Two things are true about the cost of water in San Diego: the cost of bringing water here and maintaining the system that does it is rising, but the amount of water San Diegans consume is dropping.

In 1990, the average San Diegan used 235 gallons of drinkable water per day, according to the Water Authority’s records. By 2021, San Diegans cut that almost in half to 130 gallons per day. Megadroughts that triggered mandatory water cutbacks triggered better water conservation habits, which stuck.

But while San Diegans are using less, the costs they pay continue to rise. The cost of San Digeo’s water supply is expected to rise anywhere from 5.5 to 10 percent beginning in 2023, with hefty hikes continuing in the years thereafter.

“Long after I’m dust, these supplies will be valuable to this region,” said Gary Arant, who leads the Valley Center Municipal Water District, of the haul of water rights San Diego has locked up. “Right now, we’ve got a lot of water. It’s expensive, but I think the decisions we made were good.”

Californians Used More Water as State Braces for Another Dry Year

Californians used 2.6% more water in January compared to before the drought emergency was declared, a sign that urban residents are ignoring the state’s pleas to take the drought seriously and cut back.

The increased water use in California’s cities and towns came during the second-driest January on record, as the Sierra Nevada snowpack continues to dwindle — and another dry summer looms.

The new data, which details urban water use statewide, shows that Gov. Gavin Newsom’s repeated pleas for a 15% voluntary cutback in water use are failing to reach people in cities and towns. Yet Newsom has stopped short of issuing a mandatory order.

Californians Fail to Hit Water Conservation Targets by Wide Margin — is it Disaster Fatigue?

As California’s severe drought worsens, with reservoir levels falling and the Sierra Nevada snow pack shrinking, the state’s residents — particularly in Southern California — are failing by a large margin to hit voluntary water conservation targets set by Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Last July, Newsom declared a drought emergency and asked Californians to cut urban water use 15% compared to 2020 levels.

But in January, they did the opposite, increasing water use 2.6% compared to January 2020, according to new data released Tuesday by the State Water Resources Control Board.

WaterSmart Landscape Contest-Lauren Grey's new landscaping filled with vibrant blooming plants is the 2021 Vista Irrigation District Landscape Makeover Contest winner. Photo: Vista Irrigation District Vista 2021 Contest

San Diego Water Agencies Seek Inspiring WaterSmart Landscape Contest Entries

Eleven participating San Diego County water agencies invite homeowners to share their inspiring landscaping makeover stories by entering the 2022 WaterSmart Landscape Contest.

The annual contest recognizes outstanding WaterSmart residential landscapes. The winning landscape from each participating water agency will receive a prize valued at $250 and may be recognized in print and online publications. The deadline to apply is May 13, 2022. Applications are available at www.landscapecontest.com.

Judges are looking for overall attractiveness of the landscaping including its curb appeal and whether the plants are well maintained; a design with adequate plant coverage and permeable soil able to thrive with less water; efficient methods of irrigation; and climate-appropriate plant selection with minimal turf.

“With rebates available for turf removal, now is a great time to replace your lawn with a beautiful WaterSmart landscape,” said Brent Reyes, Vista Irrigation District water conservation specialist.

Winning garden is an explosion of color

Lauren Grey's new landscaping filled with vibrant blooming plants is the 2021 Vista Irrigation District Landscape Makeover Contest winner. Photo: Vista Irrigation District

Lauren Grey’s new landscaping filled with vibrant blooming plants won the 2021 Vista Irrigation District Landscape Makeover Contest. Photo: Vista Irrigation District

In 2021, Lauren Grey won  “Best in District” award for the Vista Irrigation District. What started out as a project to halt the rush of soil down a steep front slope turned into a multi-hued garden with a view from the top. Grey renovated her front slope and landscape by installing retaining walls surrounded by beds of colorful blooms. She lined the staircase zigzagging through the hillside with a variety of potted succulents. Bright orange poppies, lush green jade, silvery ghost plants, and Purple Heart Tradescantia dot the slope.

The winning result is an explosion of color.

“What fun to have a beautiful garden and a sweet place to sit and contemplate it all!” said Grey.

Most household water use is outdoors

The Zeigler family of Vista replaced a labor intensive lawn with a beautiful pollinator friendly landscape to win the 2020 VID Landscape Makeover Contest. Photo: Vista Irrigation District

The Zeigler family of Vista replaced a labor intensive lawn with a beautiful pollinator-friendly landscape to win the 2020 Vista Irrigation District Landscape Makeover Contest. Photo: Vista Irrigation District

Residents of all participating water agencies are eligible to enter. Agencies include the cities of Escondido and Oceanside, Helix Water District, Olivenhain Municipal Water District, Otay Water District, Padre Dam Municipal Water District, Rincon del Diablo Water District, San Dieguito Water District, Sweetwater Authority, and Vallecitos Water District along with the Vista Irrigation District. Each District has slightly different requirements. Read the contest rules webpage for information.

Up to 80% of local household water consumption is outdoors. The contest intends to inspire residents to consider a landscape makeover by showcasing the beauty and variety of water-efficient landscapes.

In addition to the benefits of reducing water consumption, water-efficient landscaping can improve a home’s curb appeal and value, and reduce the need for costly, time-consuming maintenance. Many native plant selections have fire-resistant qualities and provide habitat for local wildlife.

(Editor’s note: The cities of Escondido and Oceanside, Helix Water District, Olivenhain Municipal Water District, Otay Water District, Padre Dam Municipal Water District, Rincon del Diablo Water District, San Dieguito Water District, Sweetwater Authority, Vallecitos Water District, and the Vista Irrigation District are 11 of the San Diego County Water Authority’s 24 member agencies that deliver water across the metropolitan San Diego region.)

Drought Has Already Cost Close to $2 Billion and 14,000 Jobs, and It’s Likely Not Over Yet

A new report estimates that in 2021, drought conditions cost agriculture $1.2 billion and another half a billion dollars in other sectors. The report, written by researchers at both UC Merced and the Public Policy Institute of California,  blames these economic impacts on one of the driest water years on record, which resulted in huge water losses even after tapping into millions of acre feet of groundwater.

Invest In Water Conservation During Fix a Leak Week 2022

Fix a Leak Week is a time to check indoor and outdoor plumbing systems for leaks. This year’s reminder about water conservation comes as California and much of the U.S. Southwest are in the third consecutive year of drought.

Minor water leaks account for more than one-trillion gallons of water wasted each year in homes across the United States. One-trillion gallons equals 3.068 million acre-feet, nearly enough water to meet the needs of San Diego County for seven years.

2022 Water Year Looks Dismal as Snowpack Melts

The optimism spurred by heavy snowstorms in December has melted away, and the 2022 water year is now looking bleak.

After facing the driest recorded January and February in state history, California Department of Water Resources reported that statewide, the snowpack stood at 63% of average for the date last week after conducting the agency’s third manual snow survey of the year.

Snow Drought Expands as Western U.S. is Running Out of Time to Replenish Water Supplies

February total precipitation was record low at over 200 Snow Telemetry sites, leading to continued expansion of snow drought conditions across the West. Fifty percent of the SNOTEL sites now have snow water equivalent that is less than one-third of historical conditions, up from 22% in early February.  In California, the driest January and February in state history has led to a March 1 statewide snowpack of less than 70% of average, down from 160% at the start of the new year.