Meteorologist Emily Heller says the weather lately reminds her of what Northern California saw in 2018 just before the Camp Fire set the town of Paradise ablaze. For weeks, there was no rain, excessive heat, and dry winds.
In the wake of heat waves, global warming, forest fires, storms, droughts and a rising number of hurricanes, the U.N. weather agency warned Tuesday that the number of people who need international humanitarian help could rise 50% by 2030 compared to the 108 million who needed it worldwide in 2018.
It’s that time of the year in California, when water managers, climatologists and meteorologists look at the factors that determine what the winter will bring during Water Year 2020-21 (October 1, 2020 – September 30, 2021).
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently said that La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific, “with an approximately 85% chance of La Niña lasting through the winter.” Forecasters currently think this La Niña will be on the stronger side. For California, those conditions typically mean a drier winter, with increasingly dry conditions heading into 2021.
Fortunately for the San Diego region, any impacts from La Niña will be lessened because of the region’s development of a diversified water supply portfolio. Following a record number of acres burned from wildfires in 2020, La Niña would only increase fire danger.
La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific, with an approximately 85% chance of lasting through the winter, according to NOAA’s October 2020 La Niña update. Graphic: NOAA
But, whether the forecasts come to fruition, and what that means for California’s water supply, won’t be fully known until next spring. What we know now is that the water year that just ended (October 1, 2019 – September 30, 2020) varied across the state.
While Northern California was mostly dry, parts of Southern California experienced above average precipitation, according to the California Department of Water Resources. The agency said that the water year ended below average and pointed to the impact of climate change on the California’s water supply.
“California is experiencing the impacts of climate change with devastating wildfires, record temperatures, variability in precipitation, and a smaller snowpack,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “We must continue to invest in our infrastructure to prepare the state to cope with more extreme weather for the state’s needs today and in the future.”
For Water Year 2020, a lack of precipitation resulted in a snowpack of just 50% of average on April 1, as measured by the California Cooperative Snow Survey Program, making it the 10th smallest snowpack in California since 1950, according to the DWR. California’s reservoirs received just a third of the water runoff from precipitation and snowmelt that they did during the same time period a year ago.
The wet season got off to a slow start, but a series of storms in late November and early December pushed 2019 precipitation to near or above average in central and southern California, according to Goldy Herbon, San Diego County Water Authority senior water resources specialist.
“The wet start didn’t last with dry conditions taking hold over most of the state in January, and then most of California experienced its driest February on record,” said Herbon.
While precipitation picked up in March 2020 for Southern California, statewide snowpack in mid-March was only 38% of average.
“The dry north/wet south precipitation pattern continued in March and April, with some locations in Southern California setting many daily precipitation records, San Diego included, as northern California precipitation levels remained below average,” said Herbon.
Despite the below average year in northern California, Herbon said statewide water supplies are in “excellent shape” thanks to above average precipitation the previous year and good reservoir storage. DWR reports that statewide reservoir storage through the end of September 2020 was projected to be 93% of average.
In the San Diego region, a wet spring boosted rainfall totals to near or above normal.
Regional precipitation during Water Year 2020. Graphic: National Weather Service San Diego
After a brief interlude of mild temperatures Saturday, a warm-up is forecast to begin Sunday as upper-level high pressure builds into California, the National Weather Service said. High temperatures will climb by several degrees on Sunday.
The Bay Area’s hopes for weekend rains to help snuff the Glass Fire and dampen the parched hills seem to be evaporating.
Droughts usually evoke visions of cracked earth, withered crops, dried-up rivers and dust storms. But droughts can also form over oceans, and when they then move ashore they are often more intense and longer-lasting than purely land-born dry spells.
With record-breaking temperatures, an increasing number of wildfires and drought conditions in most parts of the state, the water district’s ability to be ready and resilient is critical.
As Marin County’s largest water provider, it is the Marin Municipal Water District’s responsibility to provide customers with a safe, reliable supply of water, even under these challenging conditions. Emergency preparedness, a strategically managed water supply and the creation of water conservation programs to help customers use water wisely are all part of that effort.
Cities across the U.S. Southwest recorded their driest monsoon season on record this year, some with only a trace or no rain.
The seasonal weather pattern that runs from mid-June and ended Wednesday brings high hopes for rain and cloud coverage to cool down places like Las Vegas and Phoenix. But like last year, it largely was a dud, leaving the region parched.
California officials pressed Congress yesterday to step up federal efforts to address the rapidly growing public health crisis at the Salton Sea. Located near the Mexico border, the sea is California’s largest lake, covering more than 300 square miles. But the Salton is rapidly drying up due to reduced agricultural runoff, drought, heat and a 2003 water transfer that let San Diego take its water.
This summer, the Valley saw only two days of rain — the lowest number of days ever on record.
As we head into fall, ABC15 spoke with Director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources Tom Buschatzke about what impact the dry monsoon will have on the state’s reservoirs.
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
