Global climate experts are predicting a moderate to strong La Niña weather event this year, meaning a stormy season for most parts of the world but possibly drier-than-normal conditions in Southern California. A La Niña usually means a more active Atlantic hurricane season with potentially stronger storms.
A carpet of green, new grass covered the rolling hills, southwest of Maricopa, near New Cuyama. In the distance, the coastal mountain range was capped by white, full clouds and blue sky.
Amid a record-breaking fire year, a new report out Thursday says the state lacks a grasp on the true costs of wildfires. The report is from the California Council on Science and Technology, an independent nonprofit organization established to offer state leaders objective advice from scientists and research institutions.
There isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach to forecasting climate patterns when there’s an El Niño or a La Niña pattern in place.
El Niño and La Niña patterns are part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which monitors sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
When sea-surface temperatures in this region are above average, it’s called El Niño; when they are below average, it’s called La Niña.
We aren’t talking about major changes in water temperatures but typically more minor swings — usually on the order of plus or minus a degree Celsius — 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit — or less.
There are instances when water temperatures have been as much as eight degrees Fahrenheit above average — a very strong El Niño — but it’s not common.
The rainfall looks bleak for the San Francisco Bay Area, putting the region on track for exceptionally dry start to rainy season, according to ABC7 News Meteorologist Mike Nicco.
In the midst of the last drought, California took its first step to regulate how the state uses groundwater. But advocates worry the new rules have favored big agricultural users over small communities, particularly in areas like the San Joaquin Valley.
Serious drought conditions continue in the Southwest, and while some beneficial rain and mountain snow are in the near-term forecast, the expectation of La Niña this winter could be bad news for the region.
Federal scientists say that La Niña — the phenomenon where Pacific Ocean waters off South America are cooler than normal — is underway this winter.
A commonly held assumption among many Californians is that La Niña means a dry winter is coming, and in years when the opposite occurs, El Niño, a wet winter is considered more likely.
So brown lawns and water rationing are just around the corner, right?
Not necessarily. Looking at historical records, there isn’t a clear pattern. In the Bay Area, La Niña years have been drier than normal only about half the time.
Scientists can now predict drought and overall water supply on the Colorado River years in advance, according to a new study published by researchers at Utah State University.
The team of scientists believe long-term “ocean memory,” in conjunction with atmospheric effects and the influence of land systems, correlates with cycles of drought in parts of the western U.S., which then leads to water shortages on the Colorado River.
In 2011, heavy snows in the Rocky Mountains filled the Colorado River, lifting reservoirs—and spirits—in the drought-stricken U.S. Southwest. The following year, however, water levels dropped to nearly their lowest in a century, imperiling a supply vital to millions of people and dozens of ecosystems.
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
