The National Weather Service has trimmed projected rainfall from the storm that’s expected to hit San Diego County on Wednesday and Thursday. But forecasters say a substantial system will hit the region, further lowering wildfire danger throughout the county.
Rounds of rain are expected to soak areas from Washington to Southern California this week. The first storm rolled ashore in Washington and Oregon on Monday and settled into Northern California on Tuesday. Rain is forecast to push farther south across California during Tuesday night. Rain will fall on San Francisco, as well as the Paradise, California, area from Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night. More rain is in the offing prior to the end of the week. Overall, this first round will bring mostly rain, but the higher elevations of the Cascades in Washington are likely to receive snow.
A low-pressure system sweeping into Southern California will produce light rain throughout San Diego County on Wednesday evening and continue into Thanksgiving Day. The National Weather Service office in San Diego said the majority of the rainfall is expected late Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning. Escondido and Oceanside are expected to receive around a quarter-inch of rainfall, while one-tenth of an inch is expected near the coast and in the western valleys. The mountains are forecast to get between a quarter-inch and one-third inch, and the deserts less than one-tenth of an inch.
The rain that’s forecasted for later this week may give California some much-needed relief from the deadly and destructive wildfires plaguing the state. But too much sudden rainfall may pose its own dangers for land that has been burned. The National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for the Butte County area, which is fighting the Camp Fire, for Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. The warning states that there’s a chance of heavy rain which could trigger “flash floods, rockslides and/or debris flows” in a areas near the fire.
A pattern change is expected to take place this week that will bring long-awaited rainfall to the West, including California, and relief from the blasts of cold air in the central United States. For much of November, a southward dip in the jet stream has been in place over the central and eastern U.S. This has brought rounds of cold air, along with periods of rain and snow. In the West, the dominant pattern has been dry and mild conditions due to an upper-level ridge of high pressure near the West Coast.
Five rural East County school districts will be closed on Tuesday and SDG&E turned off power to more of its customers due to a second straight day of powerful Santa Ana winds and an elevated risk of wildfires. Before dawn on Tuesday, the wind had already gusted to 86 mph at Sill Hill, an isolated peak in the Cuyamaca mountains, southwest of Julian. Alpine hit 65, mph Descanso reached 56 mph, Julian hit 42, mph and Carlsbad recorded gusts to 38 mph.
Average rainfall and warmer temperatures, that’s what the San Diego office of the National Weather Service is forecasting this winter. With a few windows of opportunity for significant precipitation from December to March, it will be a warm and dry winter with more Santa Ana winds expected, according to City News Service. The National Weather Service predicts that San Diego’s best chance for rain in the near future will be in mid-November.
The first part of fall has been dry so far in California, and that trend might continue. UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said it’s not unusual for rain to be scarce in October, but that dry conditions – like the ones forecast over the next few weeks – are increasingly being pushed deeper into autumn. “We expect there to be a further concentration of California’s already narrow rainy season into even fewer months during just the middle of winter,” Swain said, as laid out in his recent blog post. Swain’s research suggests this trend is already evident, especially in Southern California.
Southern California is getting a taste of fall weather, with spooky dense fog early in the week and howling Santa Ana winds picking up just in time for Halloween. A low, dense fog blanketed much of Southern California on Monday morning, bringing cool weather from Los Angeles to San Diego. In the San Diego region, the widespread fog decreased visibility to less than a quarter-mile and prompted the National Weather Service to issue a hazardous-driving warning. The fog, caused by a shallow marine layer and a lack of wind, was less widespread in the Los Angeles area but was thick along the county’s coast.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Thursday a mild winter with warmer, wetter weather likely for much of the country from December through February due to a developing El Niño. California is likely to see hotter-than-average winter temperatures, while parts of Southern California could also get greater precipitation, according to NOAA. Drought conditions may worsen in much of Southern and Central California, although the north coast of California may see some relief, according to NOAA.
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
