Oceanside declared a local emergency this week in hopes of getting state and possibly federal money to cover the repair costs for sinkholes, landslides, flooding and a sewage spill caused by the recent series of storms.
NOAA’s U.S. Spring Outlook indicates the abnormally wet winter will further improve drought across much of the western U.S. as the snowpack melts in the coming months. Winter precipitation, combined with recent storms, wiped out exceptional and extreme drought in California for the first time since 2020, and is expected to further improve drought conditions this spring.
Significant flooding in the western U.S., especially in California, followed another series of strong Pacific storms that battered the region in March, and piled on to an already historic snowpack.
NOAA’s U.S. Spring Outlook indicates the abnormally wet winter will further improve drought across much of the western U.S. as the snowpack melts in the coming months. Winter precipitation, combined with recent storms, wiped out exceptional and extreme drought in California for the first time since 2020, and is expected to further improve drought conditions this spring.
Significant flooding in the western U.S., especially in California, followed another series of strong Pacific storms that battered the region in March, and piled on to an already historic snowpack.
NOAA’s U.S. Spring Outlook highlights temperature, precipitation, drought and flood predictions for April through June to help the nation prepare for potential weather and climate threats to lives and livelihoods.
“Climate change is driving both wet and dry extremes, as illustrated by NOAA’s observations and data that inform this seasonal outlook,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, and in support of the Biden Administration’s priority to tackle the climate crisis, NOAA will invest significant resources to build a Climate-Ready Nation that gives communities tailored information about changing conditions so that residents and economies are protected.”
March Snow Drought Update
While the Snow Piles Up Across California and the Great Basin, Snow Drought Concerns Have Popped Up in Parts of the Northwest and Southern Colorado
Get the full update: https://t.co/X5LjhaAj6g @NOAA @NOAAClimate @DRIScience @WRCCclimate @NWS @CnapRisa pic.twitter.com/mZBzKdT8gf
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@DroughtGov) March 16, 2023
On March 9, NOAA forecasters declared La Niña over. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern, based on changes in rainfall and sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, that influences temperature and precipitation around the world. La Niña occurs when ocean temperatures are cooler than normal and rainfall is reduced in the eastern to central Pacific Ocean.
“La Niña has finally ended after being in place nearly continuously for more than two years,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “ENSO-neutral — the transition period between El Niño and La Niña — is likely to continue into the early summer with elevated chances of El Niño developing thereafter. ENSO-neutral is factored into NOAA’s Spring Outlook.”
Moderate to exceptional drought coverage across the U.S. is at its lowest since August 2020 and is likely to continue improving, or end entirely, across much of California and the Great Basin. The spring wet season is expected to improve drought conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains. Current drought conditions in Florida are expected to improve or go away during the next three months.
Areas of extreme to exceptional drought across parts of the southern High Plains are likely to persist through the spring season, with drought also expected to develop into parts of New Mexico. Across parts of the Northwest U.S. and northern Rockies, drought conditions are also expected to continue. Drought may develop into parts of Washington state.
Above-average temperatures are favored for much of the southern and eastern half of the U.S. For April through June, the greatest chance for above-average temperatures exists from the southern High Plains eastward to Florida, and northward along the East Coast. Above-average temperatures are also likely for Hawaii and northern parts of Alaska. Below-average temperatures are predicted for the central Great Basin and the northern Plains.
The extended jet stream remains in place across the Pacific and favors an active storm track into next week. The @NWSCPC is highlighting high risk for heavy precip 3/21-3/27 #CAwx #CAwater #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/SgnuzN8Ca2
— CW3E Scripps (@CW3E_Scripps) March 14, 2023
Parts of central and southern California that were still reeling from heavy snowfall earlier this month received yet another powerful atmospheric river which exited the region on March 15. Flooding, landslides, power outages, and evacuations are among the many impacts residents faced from the recent storm. The above graphic depicts most of the state receiving between 300-600% of normal precipitation over the last seven days. — USDA Water and Climate Update
NOAA forecasters predict above-average precipitation this spring across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Below-average precipitation is most likely for the Southwest and parts of the Pacific Northwest.
The forecast said high winds and up to an inch of rain in San Diego Tuesday. The winds showed, but the rain? That was a different story.
How much water you got from this latest atmospheric-river charged storm depended on where you live.
For an example, as of noon Tuesday, San Onofre had received a little over an inch of rain, but San Diego International Airport received just three-tenths of an inch.
California saw no relief from drenching rains early Tuesday as the latest in a relentless string of storms continued to swamp roads and batter coastlines with high surf, turning rivers into gushing flood zones and forcing the evacuation of thousands in towns with histories of deadly mudslides. At least 14 people have died since the storms began last week.
California is bracing for another week of destructive storms that will probably bring flooding and hazardous winds Monday to an already battered state.
A series of atmospheric rivers that pummeled coastal communities last week and left more than 400,000 without power in California on Sunday will be followed by particularly brutal weather as rivers reach flood levels and powerful winds wreak havoc, forecasters fear.
The California Department of Water Resources first manual snow survey of the season Tuesday at Phillips Station recorded 55.5 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 17.5 inches, which is 177% of average for the location. The snow water equivalent measures the amount of water contained in the snowpack and is a key component of DWR’s water supply forecast. Statewide the snowpack is 174% of average for this date.
The California Department of Water Resources first manual snow survey of the season Tuesday at Phillips Station recorded 55.5 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 17.5 inches, which is 177% of average for the location. The snow water equivalent measures the amount of water contained in the snowpack and is a key component of DWR’s water supply forecast. Statewide the snowpack is 174% of average for this date.
California is expected to see continued rain and snow over the next seven days, with the threat of flooding in parts of California. Conditions so far this season have proven to be strikingly similar to last year when California saw some early rainstorms and strong December snow totals only to have the driest January through March on record.
“The significant Sierra snowpack is good news but unfortunately these same storms are bringing flooding to parts of California,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “This is a prime example of the threat of extreme flooding during a prolonged drought as California experiences more swings between wet and dry periods brought on by our changing climate.”
One year ago, the Phillips survey showed the seventh highest January measurements on record for that location. However, those results were followed by three months of extremely dry conditions and by April 1 of last year, the Phillips survey measurements were the third lowest on record.
More telling than a survey at a single location are DWR’s electronic readings from 130 stations placed throughout the state. Measurements indicate that statewide, the snowpack’s snow water equivalent is 17.1 inches, or 174% of average for January 3.
DWR today conducted the first Phillips Station snow survey of the season. The manual survey recorded 55.5 inches of snow depth & a snow water equivalent of 17.5 inches, which is 177 percent of the January 3 average for this location. pic.twitter.com/0m169UX2xv
— CA – DWR (@CA_DWR) January 3, 2023
“After three consecutive years of drought, the recent series of storms is a good start to the season,” said Jeff Stephenson, water resources manager with the San Diego County Water Authority. “However, we had a similarly strong early winter last year, which did not continue. While the Water Authority and its 24 member agencies have worked and continue to develop diverse water supply sources, there are still opportunities, including rebates, to save more water.”
In San Diego County, watersmartsd.org, provides sources of residential and business rebates, including indoor and outdoor incentives, and free landscape makeover classes.
Stephenson added that the region has reduced its reliance on imported water supplies, including from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Bay Delta, which means more of that source is available for other parts of California.
The severity of the current drought makes it important for everyone in San Diego County to take more water-saving actions. Find more ways to save: https://t.co/9NdxuJaoxs #cawater #cadrought pic.twitter.com/jagFayYOvK
— San Diego County Water Authority (@sdcwa) December 13, 2022
The January 2023 manual snow survey results are similar to results in 2013 and 2022 when the January 1 snowpack was at or above average conditions, only for dry weather to set in and lead to drought conditions by the end of the water year (September 30).
In 2013, the first snow survey of the season also provided promising results after a wet December similar to today’s results. However, the following January and February were exceptionally dry, and the water year ended as the driest on record, contributing to a record-breaking drought. In 2022, record-breaking December snowfall was again followed by the driest January through March period on record.
“Big snow totals are always welcome, but we still have a long way to go before the critical April 1 total,” said DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit Manager Sean de Guzman. “It’s always great to be above average this early in the season, but we must be resilient and remember what happened last year. If January through March of 2023 turn out to be similar to last year, we would still end the water year in severe drought with only half of an average year’s snowpack.”
On average, the Sierra snowpack supplies about 30% of California’s water needs and is an important factor in determining how DWR manages the state’s water resources. Its natural ability to store water is why the Sierra snowpack is often referred to as California’s “frozen reservoir.” A below-average snowpack impacts water users across the state, putting further stress on the environment and critical groundwater supplies.
Due to these increasing swings from dramatically wet to dry conditions, Governor Newsom’s recently released “California’s Water Supply Strategy, Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future” calls for investing in new projects and technologies that will modernize how the state manages water.
“Big snow totals are always welcome, but we still have a long way to go before the critical April 1 total.” – Sean de Guzman, DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit Manager .
–#california #snow #water #cawater #SnowSurvey2023 pic.twitter.com/Hi90uJbSro— CA – DWR (@CA_DWR) January 3, 2023
Current climate research indicates the state will see bigger swings from extreme heat and dry conditions to larger and more powerful storms that deliver temporary large boosts to the state snowpack as well as flood risk.
DWR encourages Californians to visit SaveOurWater.com for water saving tips and information, and to continue to conserve California’s most precious resource, rain or shine. DWR conducts five snow surveys at Phillips Station each winter near the first of each month, January through April and, if necessary, May. The next survey is tentatively scheduled for February 1.
A storm out of the northeast Pacific Ocean drenched much of San Diego County before dawn on Wednesday.
Skies are expected to be dry at 5 p.m. when Oregon and North Carolina compete in the Holiday Bowl at Petco Park in downtown San Diego.
An expanded Atmospheric River Reconnaissance program began last month as a result of the unexpected “bomb cyclone” in October 2021 that hit North America’s West Coast, followed by another atmospheric river less than a month later that caused severe flooding in Washington.
“Climatologically, November and December can bring some of the worst floods for that part of the world,” said research meteorologist Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Ralph leads the AR Recon program, along with Vijay Tallapragada, Ph.D., Senior Scientist at NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center, in partnership with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the California Dept. of Water Resources, NOAA Office of Marine and Aviation Operations, and the U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron “Hurricane Hunters.”
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
