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Rain Might Spritz San Diego County on Christmas Day

There’s a chance that a Pacific storm will blow ashore on Christmas Eve and drop 0.10” to 0.25” of rain on parts of San Diego County by the end of Christmas Day, says the National Weather Service. And that system might be followed by a second storm a couple of days later. “The models don’t agree on the Christmas forecast,” said Phil Gonsalves, a weather service forecaster. “One says rain. The other says it will be dry. We’re going with the wetter model, at the moment. “The storm wouldn’t be nearly as strong as the last couple we’ve had.”

Climate Change will Bring More Strong El Niños. Here’s What That Means for California

California is no stranger to extreme weather. The last decade has brought crippling droughts and dam-busting deluges. And climate change is only making the situation worse by turning up the heat during the dry season and supercharging storms during the wet season. Now, a new study suggests rising temperatures also will increase the frequency of strong El Niño events, which often bring pummeling rains across the state. “This adds to the evidence that what we’ve experienced in California over the last several years is consistent with what we can expect from global warming,” said Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University who was not involved in the study.

San Diego Received More Rain In Three Months Than All Of Last Year

The recent fall storms that soaked San Diego set rainfall records across the county – putting a dent in the drought and making a difference at local lakes. Adam Roser is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “Some of the areas got over two or three inches. Usually, it’s confined to the mountains – kind of the higher precipitation totals. This time it was a lot of places on the coast.” The National Weather Service said San Diego Airport received over 2.5 inches of rain. In just three months, San Diego received 3.98-inches of rainfall – more than the 3.34-inches of rain San Diego received in all of last year.

A Wet Start To The Winter Brings Piles Of Snow To California Mountains And High Hopes For Water Supply

In a good sign for California’s water supply, the Sierra Nevada has been blanketed by heavy snow thanks to a series of recent storms. The snowpack measured 106% of average, according to the state’s snow survey taken late last week. That’s more than double the 47% of average measured on the same day last year. The Sierra Nevada is a key source of water for California, which is still recovering from years of drought conditions. Two storms beginning on Thanksgiving brought up to 2 feet of snow in parts of the northern Sierra, said Emily Heller, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

San Diego’s airport reported 3.98 inches of rain between the start of the 2019 water year on Oct. 1 and Dec. 7, according to the National Weather Service. Photo: James Arnott, Flickr/Creative Commons License Wat

Late-Fall Storms Improve Water Outlook Statewide

San Diego welcomed an unexpectedly large amount of rain since mid-November, surpassing last year’s rainfall total in just the first 10 weeks of the season.

Following the latest storm, two-day precipitation totals on Dec. 7 showed rainfall of 2.6 inches at San Diego’s Lindbergh Field, San Diego’s official weather station. Regional readings ranged from a high of 3.23 inches in the University Heights area of San Diego, to 1.1 inches in Lakeside and less than an inch in the county’s desert areas.

San Diego’s airport reported 3.98 inches of rain between the start of the 2019 water year on Oct. 1 and Dec. 7, according to the National Weather Service.  Just over three inches of rain was recorded at Lindbergh Field between Oct. 1, 2017, and Sept. 30, 2018 – the second lowest total since 1850.

To put the water season in perspective, average rainfall at this time of year is about 1.8 inches.

Sierra Nevada Snowpack off to a Fast Start

In Northern California, late-fall storm systems have dropped a generous amount of snow in the Sierra Nevada, which had been very dry through mid-November. Many mountain areas are reporting twice the average snowpack for mid-December.

More than 60 percent of the state’s water supply comes from Sierra Nevada snowpack as it melts and releases water to lower elevations.  The more snow that falls each winter, the more protection the state builds against drought the following year. 

The news is also positive in the Rocky Mountains, though the Upper Colorado River Basin has been struggling with drought for nearly two decades. Rainfall was at 119 percent of average in mid-November.

San Diego Region has Sufficient Supplies for 2019

For San Diego County, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center’s three-month weather outlook for December through February predicts above-normal precipitation across all of California except the very northern tier. The agency also predicts above-normal temperatures for the western states, with a greater than 40 percent probability of above-normal temperatures this winter statewide.

Even if weather conditions were to dry out through September 2019, the Water Authority and its member agencies have enough water supplies to meet regional demands for the foreseeable future. This is possible due to a combination of drought-resilient local and regional water resources, including the Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant, conserved agricultural water transfers, savings from canal lining projects, and continued water-use efficiency measures.

A weak El Nino is expected to form and continue in the Northern Hemisphere this winter and into the spring. As a result, the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released on Nov. 15 favors drought improvement or removal for California and the southern portion of the Southwest.

Meteorologist Alex Tardy of the National Weather Service San Diego office predicted near-average precipitation in the region in his 2018-2019 outlook, noting that “past precipitation events have been extreme” with extended dry periods between storm patterns that bring heavy rain.

Late-Fall Storms Improve Water Outlook Statewide

San Diego welcomed an unexpectedly large amount of rain since mid-November, surpassing last year’s rainfall total in just the first 10 weeks of the season. Following the latest storm, two-day precipitation totals on Dec. 7 showed rainfall of 2.6 inches at San Diego’s Lindbergh Field, San Diego’s official weather station. Regional readings ranged from a high of 3.23 inches in the University Heights area of San Diego, to 1.1 inches in Lakeside and less than an inch in the county’s desert areas.

One Of California’s Most Important Assets Is Off To Great Start This Year

California’s Sierra Nevada, the state’s increasingly crucial reservoir, is off to a well-above-normal snowpack to begin the wet season. Many of the peaks are seeing double the normal amount of snowpack compared to early-December averages. Several systems, including the disturbance that became Winter Storm Carter, have dumped feet of snow in the Sierra since late November. Snowfall totals ranged from three to five feet of snow in Carter alone. You can see the difference between a rather wimpy late November snowpack and the early December blanket of slow from the Sierra eastward below.

All Of This Snow Is Great, But It Will Likely Be Months Before We Know The Impact On Colorado’s Drought

You’re seeing the pictures of deep snow being surfed by skiers and snowboarders across the state. The Colorado Department of Transportation is working double time to keep high country stretches of highways passable. But if you were expecting an overnight solution to Colorado’s drought, which has been particularly acute in the southwest part of the state, don’t hold your breath. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows conditions have improved only marginally since the summer and meteorologists and water advocates say whether the snow is adequate to quench the most parched parts of the state won’t be known until spring, when the runoff begins.

Cold Snap Chills Early Risers, But The Coming Rain Is More Worrisome

A cold front moved through San Diego County before dawn Monday, dropping temperatures into the 30s across some inland areas and into the 40s and 50s at and near the coast, says the National Weather Service. San Diego International Airport fell to 50 before dawn, Montgomery Field dropped to 45, Oceanside and Imperial Beach dropped to 48, Julian hit 37.

Storm Expected To Strengthen As It moves South into L.A. Region; Chilly Temperatures To Linger

Keep an umbrella at the ready, Californians, because more wet weather is on the way. A cold front moving through the state will bring up to an inch of rain to Northern California from Monday night through Thursday. “It’s expected to be a really weak and light system,” said Hannah Chandler-Cooley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento. “We don’t anticipate any impacts over any of the burn scar areas up here.”