San Diego County’s fragile shoreline and vulnerable beachfront properties could be in for a rough winter, according to the California Coastal Commission, the National Weather Service and some top San Diego scientists.
“We are looking at an emerging El Niño event,” staff geologist Joseph Street told the Coastal Commission at its meeting Wednesday in Eureka.
This summer’s heat seems to be easing down as temperatures decline to the 70s and 80s , a reminder that seasons are changing and winter is coming. In June, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association officially declared an El Niño, predicting that it will strengthen in the northern hemisphere this winter. But it’s too soon to know exactly what this winter will look like for California.
In the opening chapter of “The Ministry for the Future,” science-fiction author Kim Stanley Robinson details a calamitous heat wave that kills almost all the residents of a small town. In another chapter, he imagines a catastrophic flood that wipes out Los Angeles.
The late Octavia Butler described a Southern California reeling from years of drought in “Parable of the Sower,” and Paolo Bacigalupi writes about a near-future Southwest that’s also been devastated by drought.
Tropical Storm Hilary drenched Southern California from the coast to the desert resort city of Palm Springs and inland mountains, forcing rescuers to pull several people from swollen rivers.
By early Monday, remnants of the storm that first brought soaking rains to Mexico’s arid Baja California peninsula and the border city of Tijuana, threatened Nevada and as far north as Oregon and Idaho with flooding.
Southern Californians were battling flooded roads, mudslides and downed trees.
With Hurricane Hilary fast bearing down on the region, officials issued a tropical storm warning for a swath of Southern California Friday night — meaning tropical storm-force winds are expected in the region within the next 36 hours.
Southern California was already bracing for a rare and potentially destructive weekend. Such lashing winds would be only one of the storm’s potentially dangerous impacts, with forecasters also predicting intense rain, flash flooding in the desert and mountain areas and harrowing conditions along the beaches.
The storm has prompted officials to cancel events and issue dire alerts, particularly as the system moves across southwestern California on Sunday and Monday.
With Hurricane #Hilary fast bearing down on the region, officials issued a tropical storm warning for a swath of Southern California Friday night — tropical storm-force winds are expected in the region within the next 36 hours. https://t.co/Kb0cbd2FMg #CAwx #TropicalStormWarning
— San Diego County Water Authority💧 (@sdcwa) August 19, 2023
A storm headed in the direction of Southern California has been upgraded to a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said in a public advisory early Thursday morning. It is expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of the state after hitting Mexico.
The storm’s remnants are likely to bring flooding rain as well as strong winds to some parts of California, including the Los Angeles Basin, The Weather Channel reports. Heavy rainfall is expected to impact the Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week, according to the hurricane center.
(Editor’s Note: Updates on Hilary from NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.)
Now that July’s sizzling numbers are all in, the European climate monitoring organization made it official: July 2023 was Earth’s hottest month on record by a wide margin.
July’s global average temperature of 16.95 degrees Celsius (62.51 degrees Fahrenheit) was a third of a degree Celsius (six tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) higher than the previous record set in 2019, Copernicus Climate Change Service, a division of the European Union’s space program, announced Tuesday. Normally global temperature records are broken by hundredths or a tenth of a degree, so this margin is unusual.
“These records have dire consequences for both people and the planet exposed to ever more frequent and intense extreme events,” said Copernicus deputy director Samantha Burgess. There have been deadly heat waves in the Southwestern United States and Mexico, Europe and Asia. Scientific quick studies put the blame on human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.
Across the western U.S., many areas received record or near-record amounts of snowpack over the winter. With the spring and summer temperatures melting the abundant snow, a record volume of streamflow has been recorded in several basins in the southwestern U.S., providing more water for the area later into the summer than is typically seen.
Across the western U.S., many areas received record or near-record amounts of snowpack over the winter. With the spring and summer temperatures melting the abundant snow, a record volume of streamflow has been recorded in several basins in the southwestern U.S., providing more water for the area later into the summer than is typically seen.
The Walker and Carson basins near the California-Nevada border, for example, have reported the largest volume of streamflow for April through July that has ever been observed in roughly a century, when the records began. The ample runoff is helping fill reservoirs that have been depleted from years of drought conditions.
Dry conditions dominated the West and southern Plains, coupled with above-normal temperatures. Precipitation was most widespread throughout much of the upper Midwest and central Plains and into the Northeast. Almost the entire country had near- to above-normal temperatures this last week, with the greatest departures over the Southwest and central Plains where temperatures were at least 4-7 degrees above normal.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures were recorded in the Pacific Northwest with departures of 3-6 degrees below normal. At the end of the current U.S. Drought Monitor period, significant rains developed over portions of the Midwest and central Plains, and they will be accounted for in the next analysis.
July 2023 recorded more than 6,500 severe weather reports, the most preliminary July reports on record, according to our friends at the @NWSSPC. As we head into August, where is severe weather most likely this time of year? https://t.co/pySvHxoQQt pic.twitter.com/6C4u82SGYa
— NOAA Climate.gov (@NOAAClimate) August 7, 2023
Central portions of the Intermountain West may be spared degradation, as those areas are still showing residual benefits from above normal winter snowpack leading up to the summer, in addition to periods of above normal rainfall during the last 60 to 90 days. Seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks, ENSO, and climatology favor widespread drought improvement and removal across the central U.S. However, drought persistence is favored across the Upper Midwest, although there is the potential for localized improvements.” Read full assessment: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php.
Colors show where total precipitation has an increased chance of being higher or lower than usual during the next three months. The darker the shading, the greater the chance for the indicated condition. White areas have equal chances for precipitation totals that are below, near, or above the long-term average (median) for the next three months.
Climate scientists base future climate outlooks on current patterns in the ocean and atmosphere. They examine projections from climate and weather models and consider recent trends. They also check historical records to see how much precipitation fell when patterns were similar in the past.
🌡️📈#ERA5 data from the #CopernicusClimate Change Service show that July 2023 was the hottest month on record globally.
Check the data 👉 https://t.co/Ug5FznAlMW pic.twitter.com/jnsJWOT53Z
— Copernicus ECMWF (@CopernicusECMWF) August 8, 2023
Record-high temps & devastating floods struck the U.S. 15 separate billion-dollar disasters occurred during the 1st 7 months of 2023. More from NOAA’s July State of Climate report.
El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with a greater than 95% chance through December 2023-February 2024). An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. https://t.co/5zlzaZ1aZx pic.twitter.com/j5Kb91Uoty
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) August 10, 2023
(Editor’s Note: Content for this story comes from the Natural Resources Conservation Service, which produces a weekly report using data and products from the National Water and Climate Center and other agencies. The report focuses on seasonal snowpack, precipitation, temperature, and drought conditions in the United States.)
After California’s record-breaking winter rains, public health officials are warning about an increased risk for valley fever this summer.
“California’s dry conditions, combined with recent heavy winter rains could result in increasing valley fever cases in the coming months,” California Department of Public Health Director Dr. Tomás Aragón said in a news release.
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
