Tag Archive for: Weather

West’s Drought Recovery Still Years Away Despite Recent Monsoons

Heavy monsoon rains have helped to relieve the Southwest’s historic drought, but water officials say the deluge isn’t enough to reverse a drying trend that has depleted the region’s primary water sources.

Much of the West remains entrenched in a 23-year “historically unprecedented” drought driven by climate change, said Jonathan Deason, an environmental engineering professor at George Washington University.

“It’s going to take about three years of above-average rainfall to have substantial recovery,” he said.

Rain, Heat, Repeat: What Does Erratic Weather Mean for California Drought and Fires?

The pendulum of Northern California weather is getting ready to swing once again, from rain, hail, thunderstorms and snow showers at the start of this week to sunny and much warmer than average temperatures by the weekend.

Temperatures near Sacramento are expected to soar from a forecast high of 65 degrees Tuesday to 92 degrees by Saturday, staying in the upper 80s to low 90s early next week, according to the National Weather Service.

Daytime highs near South Lake Tahoe will jump from the mid-30s Tuesday to the mid-70s this coming weekend. Both are roughly 10 degrees hotter than normal for this time of year.

 

May Gray and June Gloom are Threatened by Climate Change. Enjoy Them While They Last

Anyone who has shivered through an overcast Memorial Day at the beach knows that Southern California has a tendency to serve up gray days at this time of the year. Locals call it May gray and June gloom. But the heavy-looking gray clouds that blot out the sun aren’t just the bane of beachgoers. They serve an important environmental role.

California Prepares for Energy Shortfalls in Hot, Dry Summer

California likely will have an energy shortfall equivalent to what it takes to power about 1.3 million homes when use is at its peak during the hot and dry summer months, state officials said Friday.

Threats from drought, extreme heat and wildfires, plus supply chain and regulatory issues hampering the solar industry will create challenges for energy reliability this summer, the officials said. They represented the California Public Utilities Commission, the California Energy Commission, and the California Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s energy grid.

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Few Strong Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Reach California

Few landfalling atmospheric rivers in the current water year have reached California, now in the third year of a statewide drought.

The latest update from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, shows that Water Year 2022 started strong in October, but weaker storms did not ease dry conditions.

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Landfalling atmospheric rivers

The CW3E report, Distribution of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers over the U.S. West Coast During Water Year 2022: Summary Through March, was published April 7.

“While Water Year 2022 began with an exceptional AR over California in October, the state only experienced strong or greater magnitude AR conditions FIVE times, resulting in three straight water years of below normal activity,” according the report.

The report shows that the “lack of impactful events over consecutive years” – water year 2021 and water year 2020, combined with the current water year, has resulted in three straight years of below normal activity. Bottom line: If California hoped strong atmospheric rivers would end the current drought this water year, that’s not happening, at least so far. And the two previous years were a bust, creating extremely dry conditions across the state.

CW3E and Water Authority partnership

The San Diego County Water Authority partnered with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, at UC San Diego in 2020 to better predict atmospheric rivers and improve water management before, during, and after those seasonal storms. The Center and its partners share best practices in forecast-informed reservoir operations, increased research around atmospheric rivers and droughts, and develop strategies for mitigating flood risk and increasing water supply reliability.

“Through our partnership with CW3E and the AR forecasting tools they’ve developed, it better prepares us in management of our water resources using regional storage,” said Jeff Stephenson, Water Resources Manager with the San Diego County Water Authority, in 2021. “This storage, in conjunction with developing multiple water supply sources in the San Diego region, has prepared us for years when rainfall levels are below normal in the region.”

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For additional details and graphics go to: https://bit.ly/38rSTNE.

Atmospheric rivers-drought-California drought-climate

(Editor’s Note: Atmospheric river analysis by Chad Hecht, Julie Kalansky, & F. Martin Ralph. This analysis is considered experimental.)

Record Drought Conditions Across West Raise Concerns for Summer Dry Season

The current multi-year drought across the West is the most extensive and intense drought in the 22-year history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Precipitation deficits during the first three months of 2022, across parts of the western U.S., are at or near record levels. As the climatological wet season ends across portions of the West, with below average snow cover and reservoirs at or near record-low levels, concerns for expanding and intensifying drought and water resource deficits are mounting.

During March, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 44.1°F, 2.6°F above the 20th-century average. This ranked in the warmest third of the 128-year period of record. The year-to-date (January-March) average contiguous U.S. temperature was 36.3°F, 1.2°F above average, ranking in the middle third of the record.

The March precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 2.26 inches, 0.25 inch below average, and ranked in the driest third of the 128-year period of record. The year-to-date precipitation total was 5.66 inches, 1.30 inches below average, ranking seventh driest in the January-March record.

Temperatures were above average across much of the West and along the East Coast. California ranked sixth warmest for the January-March period.

With Dry Winter, California Readies Next Drought Actions

The Department of Water Resources plans to soon drop State Water Project allocations to 0%, following a temporary 15% bump after December storms. DWR Director Karla Nemeth outlined for the State Water Resources Control Board on Tuesday this and other coming actions.

DWR will resubmit a temporary urgency change petition (TUCP) to the board on Friday, after withdrawing the proposal in February. If approved, the emergency regulation will preserve stored supplies for critical human health and safety needs.

Northern California Gets Light Rain and Snow

A weak storm system moved through Northern California on Tuesday and a stronger system was expected in the drought-stricken state during the weekend, the National Weather Service said.

Meteorologists reported that Sierra Nevada elevations above 6,000 feet (1,829 meters) received 1-3 inches (2.5-7.6 centimeters) of snow, and chains were required on Interstate 80 through the morning.

The UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab said rain unexpectedly turned to snow.

Size of Drought in US Increased by the Area of California in the Past Month

The West is far from the only region experiencing remarkably dry weather so far this year. According to Thursday’s report from the US Drought Monitor, more than 61% of the contiguous US is in some classification of drought. It is the largest portion of the country in a state of drought since 2012, the year when the continental US saw an all-time record of 65% during September.

Improved North Bay Reservoir Levels a Hopeful Sign for 2022

Winter rains have bolstered water storage in the region’s two key public reservoirs, reversing months of decline and starting off 2022 with hopes for a less-uncertain year ahead.

A lot depends on how the remainder of the rainy season shakes out. After rain this week, the forecast calls for dry weather later this month,  followed by months in which the North  Coast stands an equal chance of above-normal and below-normal precipitation under La Niña atmospheric conditions.