Yes, California will have another multi-year drought. California has immense hydrologic variability, with more droughts and floods per average year than any other part of the country. California’s water users, managers, and regulators should always be prepared for droughts (and floods). Eventually, California will have a multi-year drought worse than any we have ever seen.
Most Californians, it’s safe to say, can’t wait for 2020 to end. But the year is getting in a few parting shots on its way out the door.
The rainy season is still young, but that’s about the only consolation to be found in California’s initial estimate this week that farmers who get water from the State Water Project will only get 10 percent of their requested allocations next year. This marks the third consecutive year the initial estimate has been that low.
It’s been four years since a protracted drought had Southern Californians taking four-minute showers and turning off the tap during tooth brushing.
Now, with no rain forecast for the foreseeable future and fires once again raging in the southland, the prospect of another drought is looming large, along with its implications.
The Water Resilience Portfolio directs the Water Commission to assess the state’s role in financing conveyance projects that could help meet the needs in changing climate, a task that the Commission has taken on wholeheartedly in recent months.
At their November meeting, the Commission heard from two panels: the first panel was from project proponents who discussed conveyance projects being proposed by their organizations.
Water conservation isn’t cheap. But it’s not as pricey as 300-mile pipelines and water grabs.
The SNWA also approved a rate increase that will likely result in about a $10 hike in residential water bills by 2026 in order to pay for current and future projects.
State water officials say the first manual snow survey of the new season is set for December 30th. The Department of Water Resources is hoping for a wet December after seeing practically no rain in the first two months of the new water year. California recorded zero rain in October, and only 53% of the average rainfall in November.
Most of the state’s largest reservoirs are running well below their historic averages for December 1st. Lake Shasta at 75% capacity was 119% of its average this time last year. Lake Oroville at 61% capacity is down from 90% one year ago.
Local utilities are looking for new ways to make Southern California earthquake safe, and one way is by replacing aging water pipes.
The new pipes could help keep the water flowing after a big one hits. LADWP is replacing critical areas along its 7,000 miles of water pipes in Los Angeles with earthquake resilient pipes to ensure water is still flowing after the shaking stops.
In the midst of drought yet again, and two decades into the 21st century, California continues to operate with a water infrastructure engineered and constructed for 20th century climate conditions and populations. That’s true not only of the state’s physical network of dams and aqueducts, but of its legal and financial infrastructure as well — the pricing rules that allocate the state’s precious liquid resources among its 40 million thirsty people. The coronavirus emergency has highlighted some of the most serious stresses in the system.
With no rain in the forecast for the rest of 2020 — thanks to a La Niña weather pattern pushing storms north of the state — the probability of California entering a multi-year drought is increasing.
