California City to Get Nearly Month’s Worth of Rain in Four Days
An approaching storm is expected to soak Southern California this weekend, bringing nearly 2 inches of rain to Los Angeles over four days—nearly the city’s average monthly allotment.
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US City Could Run Out of Water by December
Historic drought across the United States is leaving some cities desperate for answers. Coalinga, California, is expected to run out of water by December.
How Two California Reservoir Water Levels Changed After Atmospheric River
California’s two biggest reservoirs have risen by several feet since Sunday after yet another atmospheric river lashed the state with rain.
What Is The ARkStorm? California’s Worst Nightmare, Potentially
Climate change is upping the odds that a disastrous flood with up to 10 feet of water might actually happen in California. The ARkStorm may not be real yet, but it’s scientifically plausible.
Track the Latest Atmospheric Rivers to Hit California and the Pacific Northwest
A pair of atmospheric rivers is expected to hit the Western United States and Canada in the coming days.
How California Reservoir Water Levels Changed After Atmospheric Rivers
One reservoir in northern California rose by 5 feet after two atmospheric rivers supplemented the water levels. An atmospheric river began across much of the Pacific Northwest, including Oregon and Northern California, on Friday.
California Farms Dried Up a River for Months. Nobody Stopped Them.
During California’s most recent drought, officials went to great lengths to safeguard water supplies, issuing emergency regulations to curb use by thousands of farms, utilities and irrigation districts.
El Niño Anticipated to Continue Through the Northern Hemisphere Winter
El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with a greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024). An El Niño Advisory remains in effect.
In August, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1], with strengthening in the central and east-central Pacific. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were in excess of +1.0°C: Niño-4 was +1.1°C, Niño-3.4 was +1.6°C, Niño-3 was +2.2°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.9°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies increased compared to July [Fig. 3] in association with anomalous warmth in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies were also consistent with El Niño. Over the east-central Pacific, low-level winds were anomalously westerly, while upper-level winds were anomalously easterly. Convection was slightly enhanced around the International Date Line, stretching into the eastern Pacific, just north of the equator. Convection was mostly suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the traditional station-based SOI were both significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño.
El Niño Winter
The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a “strong” El Niño (≥1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%. However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024; [Fig. 7]).
Next El Niño update in October
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 October 2023.
El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with a greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024). An El Niño Advisory remains in effect. Graphic: NOAA
Full discussion on the latest El Niño update from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Ocean Temperatures Are Off the Charts, and El Niño is Only Partly to Blame
In a world of worsening climate extremes, a single red line has caught many people’s attention.
The line, which charts sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean, went viral over the weekend for its startling display of unprecedented warming — nearly 2 degrees (1.09 Celsius) above the mean dating back to 1982, the earliest year with comparable data.
An Epic 31 Atmospheric River Storms Transformed California. The Mystery Remains: Why?
As winter approached, few anticipated what was about to hit California.
Mired in a serious drought, the state was suddenly battered by an onslaught of 31 atmospheric river storms in a matter of months. While the number alone isn’t exceptional, the location, intensity and duration of these storms had a transforming effect on California’s climate. Record snowfall. Deadly flooding. The end of many drought restrictions.
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
