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Spring Outlook: Drought to Expand Amid Warmer Conditions

NOAA issued its U.S. Spring Outlook today and for the second year in a row, forecasters predict prolonged, persistent drought in the West where below-average precipitation is most likely. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — part of the National Weather Service — is also forecasting above-average temperatures for most of the U.S. from the Desert Southwest to the East Coast and north through the Midwest to the Canadian border from April to June.

Californians Used More Water as State Braces for Another Dry Year

Californians used 2.6% more water in January compared to before the drought emergency was declared, a sign that urban residents are ignoring the state’s pleas to take the drought seriously and cut back.

The increased water use in California’s cities and towns came during the second-driest January on record, as the Sierra Nevada snowpack continues to dwindle — and another dry summer looms.

The new data, which details urban water use statewide, shows that Gov. Gavin Newsom’s repeated pleas for a 15% voluntary cutback in water use are failing to reach people in cities and towns. Yet Newsom has stopped short of issuing a mandatory order.

California Drought, Australia Floods: Two Sides of La Niña Amplified by Climate Change

California just notched its driest January and February on record, sounding alarms about a third year of record drought.

Across the Pacific Ocean, thousands are fleeing record flooding in Australia. Officials in Brisbane reported 31 inches of rain in six days, and Jonathan Howe, a government meteorologist quoted by the Associated Press, called the amount of rainfall “astronomical.”

Meanwhile, in the eastern Horn of Africa, prolonged drought is raising the frightening specter of famine for millions.

California drought-snowpack survey-DWR-snow survey

California Drought Now in Third Year

California officials have urged residents to prepare for a third year of drought and urged people to conserve water.

“With only one month left in California’s wet season and no major storms in the forecast, Californians should plan for a third year of drought conditions,” said California Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth. “A significantly below-average snowpack combined with already low reservoir levels make it critical that all Californians step up and conserve water every day to help the state meet the challenges of severe drought.”

The DWR conducted the third snow survey of the season March 1 at Phillips Station.

Following a January and February that will enter records as the driest documented in state history, the manual survey recorded 35 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 16 inches, which is 68% of average for this location for March, according to the DWR. The snow water equivalent measures the amount of water contained in the snowpack and is a key component of DWR’s water supply forecast. Statewide, the snowpack is 63% of average for this date.

Water conservation “a way of life” in San Diego County

“As we enter a third year of drought, we encourage residents and businesses in San Diego County to increase their water conservation efforts,” said Jeff Stephenson, water resources manager with the San Diego County Water Authority. “While the Water Authority and its 24 member agencies have worked to create multiple sources of water supply for the region, there are still opportunities, including rebates, to save more water.”

In San Diego County, the website, watersmartsd.org, provides sources of residential and business rebates, including indoor and outdoor incentives, agricultural programs, and free landscape makeover classes.

Stephenson added that the region has reduced its reliance on imported water supplies, including from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Bay Delta, which means more of that source is available for other parts of California.

Governor Gavin Newsom has asked all Californians to cut back water use at least 15% compared to 2020 levels. Regionally, the Northern, Central, and Southern Sierra snowpacks are all standing just above 59% to 66% of average for this date, impacting watersheds across the state, according to the DWR.

“As the world continues to warm, precipitation is pushing toward extremes,” said Jeremy Hill, Manager of DWR’s Hydrology and Flood Operations Branch. “Even when we see large storms producing a lot of snow early in the season, all it takes is a few dry weeks to put us below average. This new pattern challenges forecasting efforts that have relied on historical patterns, so DWR has led the charge to adopt new technologies and utilize the best available science to manage water in real time and use forecasts that give us time to make decisions to get the most benefits and minimize the hazards.”

California Drought

Dry year-drought-DWR-snow survey-California drought

An extremely dry January and February have wiped out an early season surplus and brought the February snowpack below average. With no storm relief in sight, Californians should prepare for drought conditions to continue, the DWR tweeted March 1. Graphic: California Department of Water Resources

Dry times in the Golden State

Although early season storms helped alleviate some drought impacts, a lack of storms in January and February heightens the need for conservation. The Governor has asked all Californians to cut back water use at least 15 percent compared to 2020 levels. Regionally, the Northern, Central, and Southern Sierra snowpacks are all standing just above 59 percent to 66 percent of average for this date, impacting watersheds across the state.

“With below average precipitation and snowpack up until this point, our latest statewide snowmelt forecasts are only 66 percent of average,” said Sean de Guzman, Manager of DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit. “That is not enough to fill up our reservoirs. Without any significant storms on the horizon, it’s safe to say we’ll end this year dry and extend this drought a third year.”

La Niña Expected Through Spring, Brings Uncertainty to Sierra Snowpack

The recent dry weather in Northern California might be sticking around for a while.

The Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 77% chance La Niña conditions will continue through the month of May.

The term La Niña refers to a correlation between ocean water temperatures and winter weather patterns.

Oftentimes, the weather event brings wetter than normal conditions to the Pacific Northwest and drier weather to Southern California.

La Niña Forecast: NOAA Gives Update Amid Dry California Winter

La Niña is expected to stick around for at least a little while longer, with the transition back to neutral conditions most likely not taking place until at least later in spring.

That’s according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecast, which was released late last week.

NOAA says there’s an approximately 77% chance that La Niña conditions will linger between March and May. Forecasters also favor the transition back to neutral occurring from June to August, giving that a 57% chance.

Recent Snowstorms a Good Start, but More Needed

Snow falling in the mountains and valleys was a welcome sight in a state struggling with drought.

Heavy late-December snowstorms made that month the wettest it has been in at least two years, and snowfall from the more recent storms seems to be breaking La Niña’s dry winter curse. But experts caution the somewhat-promising start to winter is just that — a start.

It’s too soon to know whether the spate of precipitation will be fleeting or will multiply into more storms, building the snowpack needed for a healthy spring runoff to feed rivers and defying La Niña, a weather pattern that typically makes the Southwest drier than normal in the winter and spring.

Dry January Portends More Drought Ahead for Northern Arizona

“Dry January” usually means abstinence from alcohol following the excesses of the holiday season, but this year it took on another meaning as well.

While December storms brought more than double the normal level of precipitation, January saw Arizona and other Western states return to drought conditions.

According to a Jan. 21 report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the overall area of the West in drought has increased from 77% to 88%. Despite this general increase, the percentage of areas experiencing exceptional drought dropped from 22% to 3%.

Atmospheric River Storm Observations Take Flight Over Pacific Ocean

Research on atmospheric rivers takes flight as UC San Diego’s Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes taps “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft for specialized scientific missions.

The aircraft will fly for a 13-week period (that began January 5) to glean critical data for improving forecasts of atmospheric river storms over the Pacific Ocean. Those storms, or “AR’s,” provide up to half of the U.S. West Coast’s annual precipitation and a majority of the flooding.

As the Colorado River Shrinks, Can the Basin Find an Equitable Solution in Sharing the River’s Waters?

Impacts from climate change and two decades of drought on the Colorado River are fueling fears that states in the Upper Basin – Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming – could be forced to curtail their own water use to fulfill obligations under the century-old Colorado River Compact to send a certain amount of water downstream to the Lower Basin states of California, Arizona and Nevada.

There has never been a so-called “Compact call” on the river. But as evidence grows that the river isn’t yielding the water assumed by the 1922 Colorado River Compact, questions arise about whether a Compact call may be coming, or whether the states and water interests, drawing on decades of sometimes difficult collaboration, can avert a river war that ends up in court.