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Opinion: Lots of Snow, Rain and Federal Money Make San Diego Water Deal a Reality

An agreement between San Diego’s major water agency and two others in Southern California is expected to save millions of dollars and conserve millions of gallons of water in the Colorado River, which has been threatened by years of overuse and drought.

What El Niño Will Mean for Lake Mead’s Water Levels

The U.S. is set for an El Niño winter—the warmer counterpart to La Niña—a climate pattern that starts with warm water building up in the tropical Pacific Ocean west of South America.

El Niño is Coming, But Will It Be a Super One?

An El Niño winter is ahead, weather forecasters firmly believe. The question they are pondering is exactly how strong it might be.

Locally, the worldwide weather factor is mostly known for directing heavy moisture toward California and the Southwest as temperatures warm several degrees across the eastern and central Pacific Ocean.

El Niño-NOAA-Northern Hemisphere-Winter

El Niño Anticipated to Continue Through the Northern Hemisphere Winter

El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with a greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024). An El Niño Advisory remains in effect.

In August, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1], with strengthening in the central and east-central Pacific. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were in excess of +1.0°C: Niño-4 was +1.1°C, Niño-3.4 was +1.6°C, Niño-3 was +2.2°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.9°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies increased compared to July [Fig. 3] in association with anomalous warmth in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies were also consistent with El Niño. Over the east-central Pacific, low-level winds were anomalously westerly, while upper-level winds were anomalously easterly. Convection was slightly enhanced around the International Date Line, stretching into the eastern Pacific, just north of the equator. Convection was mostly suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the traditional station-based SOI were both significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño.

El Niño Winter

The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a “strong” El Niño (≥1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%. However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024; [Fig. 7]).

Next El Niño update in October

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 October 2023.

El Niño

El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with a greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024). An El Niño Advisory remains in effect. Graphic: NOAA

Full discussion on the latest El Niño update from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

El Niño is Coming: What it Means for California Weather

El Niño conditions — the warming of ocean waters off South America that can alter weather across the globe, including California’s summer temperatures and the amount of rain it might receive next winter — are emerging in the Pacific Ocean for the first time in 4 years.

While El Niños do not automatically guarantee wet weather for California, historically, the stronger they are, the more likely it is that the state will have a rainy winter season. And after the dramatic series of storms this past winter that ended the drought and filled nearly empty reservoirs, another one back-to-back could increase flood risks.

Wildfires May Have Stoked Rare ‘Triple-Dip’ La Niña

In 2019, Australian skies glowed crimson in one of the country’s worst recorded fire seasons. The infernos blackened some 190,000 square kilometers of land, killing dozens of people along with an estimated 1 billion animals and destroying thousands of structures. The bushfires also unleashed plumes of smoke so voluminous they could be seen from space.

Shifts in El Niño May Be Driving Climates Extremes in Both Hemispheres

The record-breaking heat wave last week in East Antarctica, the coldest region on Earth, saw temperatures surge as much as 85 degrees Fahrenheit above average, bringing readings near freezing and unexpected surface melting instead of the usual sub-zero conditions.

The heat wave adds to a quickly growing list of previously “unthinkable” climate events, and puts an exclamation point on an Austral summer that included brutal heat waves and record-high intensity wildfires in Argentina and Chile and flooding caused by record-setting rains in eastern Australia that killed more than 20 people and left thousands homeless.