The Colorado River supports over 40 million people spread across seven southwestern states, 29 tribal nations, and Mexico. It’s responsible for the irrigation of roughly 5.5 million acres of land marked for agricultural use. Local and regional headlines show the river is in crisis. The nation mostly isn’t listening.
In the gloomiest long-term forecast yet for the drought-stricken Colorado River, a new study warns that lower river basin states including Arizona may have to slash their take from the river up to 40% by the 2050s to keep reservoirs from falling too low. Such a cut would amount to about twice as much as the three Lower Basin states — Arizona, California and Nevada — agreed to absorb under the drought contingency plan they approved in early 2019.
Precipitation is below average in California for the current water year. Despite recent storms that increased the statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack to 70% of average to date, the state is experiencing its second consecutive below average year for rain and snow.
Recent storms have boosted California’s vital Sierra Nevada snowpack but not enough to fully compensate for a dry start to winter and residents should use water wisely, a state official said Wednesday after the season’s latest measurements.
Precipitation is below average in California for the current water year. Despite recent storms that increased the statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack to 70% of average to date, the state is experiencing its second consecutive below average year for rain and snow. The water year starts on October 1 and ends September 30.
The Department of Water Resources Feb. 3 conducted the second manual snow survey of the season at Phillips Station. The manual survey recorded 63 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent, or SWE, of 17 inches, which is 93% of average for that location, according to the DWR. The SWE measures the amount of water contained in the snowpack and is a key component of DWR’s water supply forecast.
“The recent blast of winter weather was a welcome sight, but it was not enough to offset this winter’s dry start,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “While there is still a chance we will see additional storms in the coming weeks, the Department and other state agencies are preparing for the potential for a second consecutive year of dry conditions.”
Below normal precipitation is favored throughout most of the southern tier of the United States in late February to early March, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. La Niña conditions remain over the Pacific Ocean.
Statewide snow survey measurements reflect those dry conditions. Measurements from DWR’s electronic snow survey stations indicate that statewide the snowpack’s SWE is 12.5 inches, or 70% of the February 3 average, and 45% of the April 1 average. April 1 is typically when California’s snowpack is the deepest and has the highest SWE.
“The recent atmospheric storms have brought rain and snow to the northern Sierra Nevada, but conditions are still well below normal,” said Goldy Herbon, San Diego County Water Authority senior resources specialist.
Following last year’s below average water year, northern California is now experiencing its second straight water year of below average precipitation.
How it started.
How it's going.Season-to-date snowfall through January 23 vs February 4.#CAwx #CAsnow ❄️☃️🏂🌨️ pic.twitter.com/UOvjEmxa5k
— NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) February 4, 2021
Another source of the state’s water supply, the Colorado River Basin, isn’t faring much better. The water year 2021 precipitation at the end of January for the Colorado River Basin is 66% of normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
Precipitation totals to date are behind historical averages for two of the main sources of San Diego County’s supply, with two months to go in the winter season but, a couple of atmospheric rivers can change that quickly.
“The San Diego region will have a plentiful and reliable source of water due to actions taken by the Water Authority and its 24 member agencies to diversify the water supply,” said Herbon. “Continuing efforts to expand supply sources, including desalination, water reuse, and recycling, will ensure that the water needs are met for the region’s 3.3 million people and its $245 billion economy.”
Fall 2020 was extremely dry, especially in the Sierra Nevada, and follows last year’s below-average snow and precipitation, according to the DWR. With only a couple months remaining in California’s traditional wet season, DWR officials say Californians should look at ways to reduce water use at home.
Statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is 71% of average for February 4, 2021. Graphic: California Department of Water Resources
California’s water picture is heading in two different directions.
A major storm last week and a more modest system Tuesday continued to boost the Sierra Nevada snowpack, the source of one-third of the state’s water supply, in promising ways. But the Bay Area and most cities across Northern California remain stuck in one of the worst two-year rainfall deficits seen since the 1849 Gold Rush, increasing the risk of water restrictions and dry wildfire conditions locally next summer.
An NBC Bay Area investigation found 30 out of 39 sewage treatment plants located around San Francisco Bay Area are at risk of flooding as sea levels rise due to climate change. Four of those plants could flood with as little as 9.84 inches of sea level rise. That’s an amount that state analysts say is a possibility by 2030. If and when that happens, toilets won’t flush, and in some cases, sewage could back up into homes, whether residents live in the hills or along the coast.
Flooding rains and record snow in California last week marked another extreme swing of the state’s climate pendulum. The widespread downpours triggered mudslides that damaged homes and roads near some of the huge fire scars from last summer, and also brought some of the water the state will need to end a months-long hot and dry streak and douse a record-setting wildfire season that extended into January.
Fresh off a week filled with rain and snow due to an atmospheric river, water conservation may not be top of mind for everyday Californians.
NBC Bay Area Meteorologist Rob Mayeda just broke down some figures from this latest storm. In a Friday tweet he says, “Sierra Snowpack Surge: Up to 66% of average from just 40% one week ago. Biggest rains for the Central and Southern Sierra.”
While the recent precipitation may make the 2011-2017 California drought seem like a distant memory, a couple of laws passed by the legislature at that time are set to rain down policy on water agencies throughout the state.
Starting in November of 2023, California will enact a statewide indoor water use standard of 55 gallons per person per day. Local water agencies could be fined $10,000 a day by the state if they fail to meet the standard.
Although wetlands cover less than 4% of the Earth’s surface, 40% of all animal species live or reproduce in them. One-third of all organic matter on our planet is stored in places like the gigantic Pantanal wetland in western Brazil, the Sudd floodplain in southern Sudan or the Wasjugan Marsh in western Siberia.
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
