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California’s Reappearing Phantom Lake Could Remain for Two Years in the Central Valley

Satellite images taken over the past several weeks show a dramatic resurrection of Tulare Lake in California’s Central Valley and the flooding that could remain for as long as two years across previously arid farmland.

The satellite imagery, provided by the Earth imaging company Planet Labs, show the transition from a dry basin to a wide and deep lake running about ten miles from bank to bank on land used to grow almonds, tomatoes, cotton and other crops.

Two Key Projects to Give Full Water Supplies to Farms

After a series of winter storms boosted California’s reservoirs and snowpack, state and federal officials are pledging full water deliveries, increasing 2023 allocations for farmers and water districts to 100% of requested supplies for the year.

With snowmelt occurring, the California Department of Water Resources said last week it expects to deliver 100% of requested water supplies from the State Water Project. That is up from a 75% allocation announced in March.

State Water Project to Deliver 100% of Requested Supplies as Reservoirs Fill

The California Department of Water Resources announced Thursday that the State Water Project will be able to deliver 100% of requested water supplies this year thanks to full reservoirs following record winter rain and snow.

California Sees Record Snowpack Levels, Boost in Water Supply

Molly White, Water Operations Manager for the State Water Project at the California Department of Water Resources, said atmospheric river storms have to led to near-record snowpack in many parts of the Sierra Nevada and reservoir storage is above average for this time of year.

Sierra Nevada Snowpack: One of the Largest on Record

Following three consecutive years of drought in California, the Sierra Nevada snowpack is one of the most bountiful in more than 40 years. While the record snowpack and snow water equivalent is great news for water supply, there are concerns the record snowpack could create flooding issues.

Sierra Nevada Snowpack: One of the Largest on Record

Following three consecutive years of drought in California, the Sierra Nevada snowpack is one of the most bountiful in more than 40 years. While the snowpack and snow water equivalent is great news for water supply, there are concerns the record snowpack could create flooding issues.

The California Department of Water Resources electronic readings from 130 snow sensors placed throughout the state indicate the statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack’s snow water equivalent is 61.1 inches, or 237% of average for April 3. The snow water equivalent measures the amount of water contained in the snowpack and is a key component of DWR’s water supply forecast.

Sierra Nevada snowpack

This year’s April result from the statewide snow sensor network is higher than any other reading since the snow sensor network was established in the mid-1980s. Before the network was established, the 1983 April 1 statewide summary from manual snow course measurements was 227% of average. The 1952 April 1 statewide summary for snow course measurements was 237% of average.

“This year’s severe storms and flooding is the latest example that California’s climate is becoming more extreme,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth after the April 3 snow survey at Phillips Station in the Sierra Nevada. Photo: Fred Greaves/California DWR

“California’s climate is becoming more extreme”

“This year’s severe storms and flooding is the latest example that California’s climate is becoming more extreme,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “After the driest three years on record and devastating drought impacts to communities across the state, DWR has rapidly shifted to flood response and forecasting for the upcoming snowmelt. We have provided flood assistance to many communities who just a few months ago were facing severe drought impacts.”

Just as the drought years demonstrated that California’s water system is facing new climate challenges, this year is showing how the state’s flood infrastructure will continue to face climate-driven challenges for moving and storing as much of these flood water as possible.

Sierra Nevada snowpack-snow survey-DWR-

“This year’s result will go down as one of the largest snowpack years on record in California,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit. (R-to-L: de Guzman, Jacob Kollen, Water Resources Engineer in Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit, and Jordan Thoennes, Water Resources Engineer in Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit.) Photo: Kenneth James/California DWR

“One of the largest snowpack years on record”

“This year’s result will go down as one of the largest snowpack years on record in California,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit. “While 1952’s snow course measurements showed a similar result, there were fewer snow courses at that time, making it difficult to compare to today’s results. Because additional snow courses were added over the years, it is difficult to compare results accurately across the decades with precision, but this year’s snowpack is definitely one of the biggest the state has seen since the 1950s.”

Sierra Nevada-snowpack-April 2023-DWR

Snowpack varies by region

For California’s snow course measurements, only 1952, 1969 and 1983 recorded statewide results above 200% of the April 1 average. While above average across the state this year, snowpack varies considerably by region. The Southern Sierra snowpack is currently 300% of its April 1 average and the Central Sierra is at 237% of its April 1 average. However, the critical Northern Sierra, where the state’s largest surface water reservoirs are located, is at 192% of its April 1 average.

Flooding and spring snowmelt

The size and distribution of this year’s snowpack is also posing severe flood risk to areas of the state, especially the Southern San Joaquin Valley. DWR’s State-Federal Flood Operations Center (FOC) is supporting emergency response in the Tulare Lake Basin and Lower San Joaquin River by providing flood fight specialists to support ongoing flood response activities and by providing longer-term advanced planning activities.

The FOC and DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit are helping local agencies plan for the spring snowmelt season by providing hydraulic and hydrologic modeling and snowmelt forecasts specific to the Tulare Lake Basin that are informed by DWR’s snowmelt forecasting tools, including Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) surveys.

Storms this year have caused impacts across the state including flooding in the community of Pajaro and communities in Sacramento, Tulare, and Merced counties. The FOC has helped Californians by providing over 1.4 million sandbags, over 1 million square feet of plastic sheeting, and over 9,000 feet of reinforcing muscle wall, across the state since January.

State Water Project deliveries increased

On March 24, DWR announced an increase in the forecasted State Water Project deliveries to 75%, up from 35% announced in February, due to the improvement in the state’s water supplies. Governor Gavin Newsom has rolled back some drought emergency provisions that are no longer needed due to improved water conditions, while maintaining other measures that continue building up long-term water resilience and that support regions and communities still facing water supply challenges.

Sierra Nevada Snowpack-April 2023-Reservoir conditions

Water supply challenges

While winter storms have helped the snowpack and reservoirs, groundwater basins are much slower to recover. Many rural areas are still experiencing water supply challenges, especially communities that rely on groundwater supplies which have been depleted due to prolonged drought.

Water conservation ‘a way of life’

Long-term drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin will also continue to impact the water supply for millions of Californians. The state continues to encourage Californians to make water conservation a way of life as more swings between wet and dry conditions will continue in the future. The San Diego County Water Authority and its 24 member agencies provide rebates and programs to encourage water conservation.

Given the size of this year’s snowpack with more snow in the forecast, DWR anticipates conducting a May snow survey at Phillips Station. That is tentatively scheduled for May 1.

Opinion: Delta Tunnel Project Won’t Provide Reliable Water Supply California Needs

The California Department of Water Resources is using the winter storms to claim that the proposed Delta Conveyance project would help ensure a more reliable water supply for the State Water Project in light of how climate change will alter seasonal patterns of rain and drought.

In reality, the benefits of the conveyance project are speculative at best.

California Storms: Lake Shasta Now Three-Quarters Full as Rains Bring It Closer to Top

After a relatively dry February, the spigot has turned back on over the North State, thanks to a series of late-winter storms in March that have brought water levels up at Lake Shasta to almost 40 feet from its crest.

The lake — the state’s largest reservoir — has risen 8 feet over the past week and more than 100 feet since Dec. 1, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation numbers show.

Calif. Reservoir Levels Show Signs of Improvement After Recent Winter Storms

All of this rain in California has had positive impacts on some of the state’s main reservoirs. Though officials say reservoir levels have seen major improvements, we’re not out of the drought yet.

“California, statewide is at 131% of average precipitation,” said Jeanine Jones, interstate resources manager for the California Department of Water Resources, “What that means is that a lot of our reservoirs have had the opportunity to improve significantly, compared to last year or the year before. Most of our reservoirs are fairly close to full.”

DWR-Reclamation-Water right-drought-conserve

DWR, Reclamation Submit Request to Adjust Water Right Permit Conditions to Conserve Storage

Following the driest three-year period on record, California experienced one of the wettest three weeks in January. But now those extreme wet conditions have activated a water quality standard in the Delta that, coupled with the extended dry period since then, could result in a sharp reduction in the amount of water that can be retained or moved into storage for both the State Water Project and federal Central Valley Project.

The Department of Water Resources and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation are working in real time to operate the state’s water system to maximize water supply while protecting species and the environment. However, California continues to experience unprecedented swings in weather impacting water management operations.

“Extreme weather swings”

Because of these extreme weather swings, DWR and Reclamation are taking proactive measures to manage the state’s water supply to store and capture more water in preparation for a return to hot, dry weather in the next two months.

Both agencies submitted a Temporary Urgency Change Petition (TUCP) to the State Water Resources Control Board requesting approval to modify compliance with Delta water quality conditions specified in their water right permits, while proposing measures to avoid impacts on Delta smelt.

DWR and Reclamation typically would seek this kind of change during extremely dry conditions. But the swing to extremely wet conditions after extremely dry conditions has created challenges, and the projects are acting to enable additional opportunities for water storage north and south of the Delta while maintaining protections for species.

The request for the TUCP follows protective actions taken by DWR and Reclamation under state and federal endangered species permits in late December and early January, including the “first flush” action to reduce pumping and allow storm runoff to flow through the system for the benefit of native fish species. Recent monitoring information shows the actions worked as intended, with key fish species moving downstream of the Delta and away from the direct influence of the SWP and CVP pumps.

The water quality and water right permits that dictate SWP and CVP operations require certain water quality conditions to be met at specific compliance points in the Delta to provide for favorable conditions for endangered fish species. In consultation with the Department of Fish and Wildlife, DWR and Reclamation are requesting that the State Water Resources Control Board temporarily move the compliance point in the projects’ water rights permits from Port Chicago six miles east to Chipps Island. The alternative compliance point is anticipated to ensure water quality sufficient to protect beneficial uses.

Drought conditions persist

If approved by the State Water Board, these actions would allow DWR and Reclamation to move and retain more stormwater and runoff in the state’s reservoirs in preparation for continued dry periods.  A total of approximately 300,000 acre-feet would be saved for later use by the State Water Project alone.

While the January storms provided much-needed rain and snowfall, they did not end drought conditions for much of the state and California remains in a drought emergency.  Regions that rely on the Colorado River system face increasingly severe water shortage conditions, and groundwater basins that serve communities in the Central Valley will not recover quickly from back-to-back years of drought and chronic overdraft.

DWR will continue to work with federal and state partners to be proactive and respond in real time to balance multiple water supply needs.