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Monthly Reservoir Report for February 2

The New Year’s Atmospheric River storms of 2023 have abated and catchments across the State are draining as exemplified by continuing baseflows through their hydrograph recession limbs.  River flows are still elevated, but releases have been incrementally curtailed and stage levels continue to drop.

Despite early positive signs, however, the reality of what this storm (or series of storms) brought in terms of drought relief is made eminently clear by reviewing various data sources.

Storm Deluge Stirs Hope for Water Supply

California farmers are encouraged by the series of atmospheric river storms that brought near-record rain and snow, filling depleted reservoirs and bolstering the snowpack.

Frost Pauli, vineyard manager for Pauli Ranch in Potter Valley in Mendocino County, said he feels optimistic after three intense years of drought. He said the winter storms “have been excellent for our water supply.”

7 Billion Gallons of Water Fill Up San Diego Reservoirs, but What Does This Mean for the County’s Drought Levels?

Given the recent Pacific and atmospheric river storms battering the entire state, San Diego reservoirs are filling up exponentially, especially within the city of San Diego. However, while the recent downpours have helped, it won’t entirely solve the region’s drought situation.

According to the city, local reservoirs have collected seven billion gallons of water from rain and runoff in just the past week alone. That’s enough water to supply all 1.4 million city residents for six weeks.

California Weather Forecasters Bolstered by Airborne Researchers Diving Into Atmospheric Rivers

As the parade of storms hitting California leaves behind widespread damage and impacts, scientists are literally diving into these atmospheric river events to better predict and understand what’s coming on the horizon.

Flying over the Pacific Ocean on specially-equipped aircraft, the “hurricane hunters” of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration play a huge role in helping communities determine the severity of atmospheric river storms.

500 Mudslides, Flooded Communities, Broken Bridges: California Faces Long, Costly Storm Recovery

A pier in Santa Cruz split in half. Extensive flooding in Soquel Village, Capitola and Planada. Vital bridges badly battered or closed. More than 500 reported mudslides across California in the last few weeks, including some that damaged homes and cars in L.A. hillside communities.

The atmospheric river storms that pummeled California for weeks inflicted “extensive” damage to as many as 40 of the state’s 58 counties, and total repairs could reach as much as $1 billion, according to authorities.

Climate Change Projected to Increase Atmospheric River Flood Damages in the United States

A research team at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego has found that flood damages triggered by atmospheric river storms may triple from $1 billion a year to over $3 billion a year by the end of the century unless action is taken to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

La Niña Expected Through Spring, Brings Uncertainty to Sierra Snowpack

The recent dry weather in Northern California might be sticking around for a while.

The Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 77% chance La Niña conditions will continue through the month of May.

The term La Niña refers to a correlation between ocean water temperatures and winter weather patterns.

Oftentimes, the weather event brings wetter than normal conditions to the Pacific Northwest and drier weather to Southern California.

California’s Atmospheric River Storms Dropped 7,600,000,000,000 Gallons of Rain, but It Was No Drought Buster

Federal forecasters estimate that the atmospheric river storms that hit parts of northern and central California from October 23-26 dropped 7.6 trillion gallons of rain — which can also be expressed as 7,600,000,000,000.

“That’s enough water for over 244 million people for an entire year,” the National Weather Service’s Western Region Headquarters in Salt Lake City said in a statement.

Future Precipitation Increase from Very High Resolution Ensemble Downscaling of Extreme Atmospheric River Storms in California

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California.