A month ago, predictions for Lake Mead’s future were reassuring. Now, the federal government is forecasting the lake will drop to a new low in less than two years.

A “most probable” report released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation predicts the lake will be down to 1,040.77 feet in September 2025. That’s nearly a foot lower than Lake Mead was on July 27, 2022 — and the lowest the lake has been since it was filled in the 1930s.