The start of the wet season was promising in California, with a record-breaking atmospheric river in October and an onslaught of storms in December, but the weather forecast has remained persistently dry since the start of the year — with no hope for rain in the immediate future.

The lack of rain during what is usually the wettest time of the year is problematic in a drought-plagued state that needs to replenish its water supply and dampen a wildfire-prone landscape. The last hope that remains for winter is a surge of precipitation in late February and in March. What are the chances of that even happening?