Santa might be able to lose the heavy red coat when he makes his rounds in the Southland, and he probably won’t need an umbrella either.
The extended outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration favors above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation in the Los Angeles region from Dec. 24 through Dec. 30.
It’s possible that San Diego County won’t receive significant rainfall during December, which would significantly elevate the wildfire danger throughout the region, according to the National Weather Service.
“The storms that have been forming off the Pacific Northwest are not dropping into Southern California,” said Dan Gregorio, a weather service forecaster.
Just how warm Earth stays this December will determine if 2020 goes down as the hottest year on record. And it’s looking a lot like it will.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calculated Monday that last month globally was the second hottest November on record, behind only 2015. Yet NASA and a European climate monitoring group said it was the hottest November on record. NASA has coverage over the poles that NOAA does not — and both the Arctic and Antarctic were very warm in November, NOAA climate scientist Ahira Sanchez-Lugo said to explain the difference.
Southern Californians are in for a reprieve from dangerous fire weather that plagued the region for more than a week, with lower temperatures and moister air in the forecast — though still no rain.
The fire that rampaged through the San Lorenzo Valley in August and September burned hotter and destroyed more acreage than anyone in these rugged, rural and breathtaking mountains can remember.
At the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, researchers feel the urgency as they examine connections between West Coast precipitation and a devastating wildfire season, which has yet to conclude.
Yes, California will have another multi-year drought. California has immense hydrologic variability, with more droughts and floods per average year than any other part of the country. California’s water users, managers, and regulators should always be prepared for droughts (and floods). Eventually, California will have a multi-year drought worse than any we have ever seen.
It’s been four years since a protracted drought had Southern Californians taking four-minute showers and turning off the tap during tooth brushing.
Now, with no rain forecast for the foreseeable future and fires once again raging in the southland, the prospect of another drought is looming large, along with its implications.
Amid California’s worst fire season in history, climate experts are predicting hot and dry conditions this winter. “On average there will be less moisture than we would normally receive here in California,” says Dr. Lowell Stott, a professor of earth sciences at the University of Southern California.
State water officials say the first manual snow survey of the new season is set for December 30th. The Department of Water Resources is hoping for a wet December after seeing practically no rain in the first two months of the new water year. California recorded zero rain in October, and only 53% of the average rainfall in November.
Most of the state’s largest reservoirs are running well below their historic averages for December 1st. Lake Shasta at 75% capacity was 119% of its average this time last year. Lake Oroville at 61% capacity is down from 90% one year ago.
