Move aside La Niña – it’s almost time for El Niño to take over.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center issued an “El Niño watch” Thursday morning, saying the climate pattern is expected to form sooner than previously anticipated.
NOAA’s U.S. Spring Outlook indicates the abnormally wet winter will further improve drought across much of the western U.S. as the snowpack melts in the coming months. Winter precipitation, combined with recent storms, wiped out exceptional and extreme drought in California for the first time since 2020, and is expected to further improve drought conditions this spring.
Significant flooding in the western U.S., especially in California, followed another series of strong Pacific storms that battered the region in March, and piled on to an already historic snowpack.
NOAA’s U.S. Spring Outlook highlights temperature, precipitation, drought and flood predictions for April through June to help the nation prepare for potential weather and climate threats to lives and livelihoods.
“Climate change is driving both wet and dry extremes, as illustrated by NOAA’s observations and data that inform this seasonal outlook,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, and in support of the Biden Administration’s priority to tackle the climate crisis, NOAA will invest significant resources to build a Climate-Ready Nation that gives communities tailored information about changing conditions so that residents and economies are protected.”
March Snow Drought Update
While the Snow Piles Up Across California and the Great Basin, Snow Drought Concerns Have Popped Up in Parts of the Northwest and Southern Colorado
Get the full update: https://t.co/X5LjhaAj6g @NOAA @NOAAClimate @DRIScience @WRCCclimate @NWS @CnapRisa pic.twitter.com/mZBzKdT8gf
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@DroughtGov) March 16, 2023
On March 9, NOAA forecasters declared La Niña over. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern, based on changes in rainfall and sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, that influences temperature and precipitation around the world. La Niña occurs when ocean temperatures are cooler than normal and rainfall is reduced in the eastern to central Pacific Ocean.
“La Niña has finally ended after being in place nearly continuously for more than two years,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “ENSO-neutral — the transition period between El Niño and La Niña — is likely to continue into the early summer with elevated chances of El Niño developing thereafter. ENSO-neutral is factored into NOAA’s Spring Outlook.”
Moderate to exceptional drought coverage across the U.S. is at its lowest since August 2020 and is likely to continue improving, or end entirely, across much of California and the Great Basin. The spring wet season is expected to improve drought conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains. Current drought conditions in Florida are expected to improve or go away during the next three months.
Areas of extreme to exceptional drought across parts of the southern High Plains are likely to persist through the spring season, with drought also expected to develop into parts of New Mexico. Across parts of the Northwest U.S. and northern Rockies, drought conditions are also expected to continue. Drought may develop into parts of Washington state.
Above-average temperatures are favored for much of the southern and eastern half of the U.S. For April through June, the greatest chance for above-average temperatures exists from the southern High Plains eastward to Florida, and northward along the East Coast. Above-average temperatures are also likely for Hawaii and northern parts of Alaska. Below-average temperatures are predicted for the central Great Basin and the northern Plains.
The extended jet stream remains in place across the Pacific and favors an active storm track into next week. The @NWSCPC is highlighting high risk for heavy precip 3/21-3/27 #CAwx #CAwater #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/SgnuzN8Ca2
— CW3E Scripps (@CW3E_Scripps) March 14, 2023
Parts of central and southern California that were still reeling from heavy snowfall earlier this month received yet another powerful atmospheric river which exited the region on March 15. Flooding, landslides, power outages, and evacuations are among the many impacts residents faced from the recent storm. The above graphic depicts most of the state receiving between 300-600% of normal precipitation over the last seven days. — USDA Water and Climate Update
NOAA forecasters predict above-average precipitation this spring across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Below-average precipitation is most likely for the Southwest and parts of the Pacific Northwest.
With $5 million in funding from NOAA’s Climate Adaptation Partners (CAP) initiative, the California Nevada Adaptation Program (CNAP), a collaborative initiative between UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the DRI in Reno, Nevada will work to expand climate research and focus on building adaptation strategies. The program will last five years and aim to empower local communities to use this knowledge to make informed decisions in the face of long-term drought, unprecedented wildfires, and extreme heat impacting public health.
The atmospheric river currently impacting the West Coast, while creating dangerous weather conditions for millions of people, could possibly have a chance of temporarily reversing drought conditions in states that desperately need water, experts say. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration describes atmospheric rivers as “rivers in the sky” because they’re somewhat long and narrow regions in the atmosphere that send most of the water vapor outside the tropics.
North Bay farmers, fire agencies and other water stakeholders prepare to enter a new year hoping to avoid a “Groundhog Day” movie-like repeat of events akin to 2022’s. 2022 ended much like 2021, with downpours creating a sense of optimism of more consistent rain. However, if early 2023 weather patterns mimic 2022’s, the fear exists that the North Bay will see more drought in the coming years.
A perfect combination of cosmic events will occur this holiday season to bring astronomically high tides known as king tides to San Diego just before Christmas, forecasters say. The phenomenon, which describes what are typically some of the highest tides of the year, are scheduled to occur on Dec. 23 and 24. A second round is predicted to happen on Jan. 21 and 22. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that this winter season’s tides may cause coastal flooding in low-lying areas of San Diego.
Most Californians don’t expect to see anything like a white Christmas, but this year, even a damp Christmas is looking unlikely. An update to the Climate Prediction Center’s official winter forecast shows a hot and dry season ahead for much of the Golden State.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its U.S. winter weather outlook that La Niña will make an appearance December through February for the third year in a row. It’s not unusual to see two consecutive winters marked by La Niña, but what U.S. forecasters are calling a “triple dip” is uncommon. Going back some 70 years, this has occurred only two other times.
Drought has engulfed large swaths of the country, threatening parts of the nation’s food and power supply. And it’s getting worse.
More than 80 percent of the continental U.S. is experiencing unusually dry conditions or full-on drought, which is the largest proportion since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began tracking 20 years ago.
Drought and wildfire risks will remain elevated in the western states while warmer than average temperatures will greet the Southwest, Gulf Coast and East Coast this winter, federal weather officials said Thursday.
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
