After a worryingly weak start to the winter for California’s mountains, two storms — including what’s expected to be the biggest of the season so far — are expected to dump several inches of snow on the Sierra Nevada this week, days after some promising weekend snowfall.
El Niño is here, but California isn’t seeing the impact, at least not yet. Joe Sirard, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles, says precipitation for the current water year is generally lagging behind averages.
The National Weather Service modeling predicts a “historically strong” El Niño this winter, the first in five years. What does that mean for gardens? A warm winter and usually, rain.
With precipitation and snowpack falling behind normal levels for this time of year, the 40 million people served by the Colorado River have last year’s wet winter to thank for the Basin’s relative stability. Right now, the entire American West is struggling with snow drought. Snowpack for the Upper Colorado River Basin — which includes Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — stands at a dismal 57.7% of average as of Jan. 3.
San Diego markets itself as the land of endless warmth and sunshine. That seems like a goof as 2023 comes to an end. The city received only two hours of sunshine in the entire month of May. The temperature was below average for 11 straight months.
A flood watch will be in effect for all of San Diego County from Thursday evening through Friday evening as a slow-moving storm travels through Southern California.
The National Weather Service said rainfall over the next two days is expected to total .75 to 1.5 inches for the coast and valleys, 1 to 2 inches for the mountains, and up to an inch in the deserts.
El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with a greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024). An El Niño Advisory remains in effect.
In August, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1], with strengthening in the central and east-central Pacific. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were in excess of +1.0°C: Niño-4 was +1.1°C, Niño-3.4 was +1.6°C, Niño-3 was +2.2°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.9°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies increased compared to July [Fig. 3] in association with anomalous warmth in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies were also consistent with El Niño. Over the east-central Pacific, low-level winds were anomalously westerly, while upper-level winds were anomalously easterly. Convection was slightly enhanced around the International Date Line, stretching into the eastern Pacific, just north of the equator. Convection was mostly suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the traditional station-based SOI were both significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño.
The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a “strong” El Niño (≥1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%. However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024; [Fig. 7]).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 October 2023.
El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with a greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024). An El Niño Advisory remains in effect. Graphic: NOAA
Full discussion on the latest El Niño update from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
San Diego County’s fragile shoreline and vulnerable beachfront properties could be in for a rough winter, according to the California Coastal Commission, the National Weather Service and some top San Diego scientists.
“We are looking at an emerging El Niño event,” staff geologist Joseph Street told the Coastal Commission at its meeting Wednesday in Eureka.
Phoenix sizzled through its 31st consecutive day of at least 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 Celsius) and other parts of the country grappled Sunday with record temperatures after a week that saw significant portions of the U.S. population subject to extreme heat.
The National Weather Service said Phoenix climbed to a high of 111 F (43.8 Celsius) before the day was through.
With an exceptionally rainy season for California, much of the state is free from drought, including most of San Diego County, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The latest drought monitor map released Thursday shows all but 11% of San Diego County remains in some form of drought, which is the same as last week. But that’s significantly down from 3 months ago when all of San Diego County was in some form of drought.
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
