Lake Powell’s water levels are on the cusp of dropping below a critical benchmark and federal officials don’t expect the reservoir’s supply to be replenished until May.
As of Thursday, the lake’s levels were hovering inches above 3,525 feet, which is the threshold local officials set as the “target elevation” while drafting the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan Agreements.
In the coming days, Lake Powell, a major reservoir on the Colorado River, is expected to drop below a critical threshold, a sign of the water stress facing the region amid a prolonged drought, warming temperatures and changes in how water cycles through the environment.
Forecasters with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency charged with managing much of the West’s water infrastructure, expect Lake Powell to fall below a key low-level water mark within a matter of days.
3,490 feet is the minimum elevation at which the generators in Lake Powell can run, according to Gene Shawcroft, the general manager for the Central Water Conservancy District and Utah’s Colorado River Commissioner.
He says 3,525 feet was the buffer level, water leaders decided on, to move forward with a plan after witnessing record drought conditions.
The US Bureau of Reclamation announced last month that irrigation districts accounting for farmers across California’s Central Valley would receive a zero-water allocation from the Central Valley Project as early-year dryness weighs on anticipated water supply. No water is allocated for irrigation north and south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin river delta, including off the Sacramento river, according to the 23 February announcement. Additional allocations will be announced in May.
Not since Charlemagne was crowned Holy Roman Emperor in 800 A.D. has the American West been so dry. A recent study in Nature Climate Change found the period 2000 to 2021 was the driest 22 years in more than a millennium, attributing a fifth of that anomaly to human-caused climate change. The megadrought has meant more fires, reduced agricultural productivity, and reduced hydropower generation. Last summer, the United States’ two largest reservoirs — Lake Mead and Lake Powell — reached their lowest levels ever, triggering unprecedented cuts in water allocations to Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico.
A small bucket loader scraped Wahweap Bay’s expanding strip of red mud and gravel, its operator smoothing the shoreline where concrete workers were busy chasing a lake in retreat.
To the left, where the bay had long offered kayakers and water skiers a loop around Lone Rock, the monumental slab now rose from dust flats instead of from flat water. To the right, in the channel that leads to Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River’s sunken bed, formerly submerged islands and peninsulas mapped out a warming climate’s continuing transformation of one of America’s great water stores and pleasure grounds.
A desert flooded by impounded waters in the last century has visibly reasserted itself in this one.
The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season.
Water managers, who hoped the trend would build into an above-average snow year that might delay a looming water crisis in the Southwest, watched the snowpack drop to near zero in November. Then, after a massive storm cycle brought six feet of snow to parts of the Rockies around the New Year, they again breathed a sigh of relief.
The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season.
Water managers, who hoped the trend would build into an above-average snow year that might delay a looming water crisis in the Southwest, watched the snowpack drop to near zero in November. Then, after a massive storm cycle brought six feet of snow to parts of the Rockies around the New Year, they again breathed a sigh of relief.
The past 30 days have at least temporarily erased hopes of above-average spring runoff in the Colorado River Basin, according to the February report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.
“Very little precipitation during the last three weeks of January, especially across southern Utah and southwest Colorado,” Cody Moser, a hydrologist with the NOAA forecast center, said Monday during a web briefing to review the agency’s latest monthly water-supply report.
The National Resources Conservation Service maintains snow telemetry (SNOTEL) sites across the Colorado River Basin, which automatically report snow depth and quality. Beginning in December, NOAA produces regular reports based on the SNOTEL data, detailing how that snow might translate into streamflow come spring.
The framework for how Upper Colorado River Basin states will respond to low water levels at Lake Powell is now out for public review.
It’s called the Drought Response Operations Plan, which is part of the larger Drought Contingency Plan signed in 2019. These policies were put in place because of the troubling hydrology in the region.
