La Niña is finally over after three years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
This winter has not acted like a typical La Niña winter with California getting drenched, especially in Southern California where La Niña typically signals a drier than average winter.
NOAA’s U.S. Spring Outlook indicates the abnormally wet winter will further improve drought across much of the western U.S. as the snowpack melts in the coming months. Winter precipitation, combined with recent storms, wiped out exceptional and extreme drought in California for the first time since 2020, and is expected to further improve drought conditions this spring.
Significant flooding in the western U.S., especially in California, followed another series of strong Pacific storms that battered the region in March, and piled on to an already historic snowpack.
NOAA’s U.S. Spring Outlook highlights temperature, precipitation, drought and flood predictions for April through June to help the nation prepare for potential weather and climate threats to lives and livelihoods.
“Climate change is driving both wet and dry extremes, as illustrated by NOAA’s observations and data that inform this seasonal outlook,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, and in support of the Biden Administration’s priority to tackle the climate crisis, NOAA will invest significant resources to build a Climate-Ready Nation that gives communities tailored information about changing conditions so that residents and economies are protected.”
March Snow Drought Update
While the Snow Piles Up Across California and the Great Basin, Snow Drought Concerns Have Popped Up in Parts of the Northwest and Southern Colorado
Get the full update: https://t.co/X5LjhaAj6g @NOAA @NOAAClimate @DRIScience @WRCCclimate @NWS @CnapRisa pic.twitter.com/mZBzKdT8gf
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@DroughtGov) March 16, 2023
On March 9, NOAA forecasters declared La Niña over. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern, based on changes in rainfall and sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, that influences temperature and precipitation around the world. La Niña occurs when ocean temperatures are cooler than normal and rainfall is reduced in the eastern to central Pacific Ocean.
“La Niña has finally ended after being in place nearly continuously for more than two years,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “ENSO-neutral — the transition period between El Niño and La Niña — is likely to continue into the early summer with elevated chances of El Niño developing thereafter. ENSO-neutral is factored into NOAA’s Spring Outlook.”
Moderate to exceptional drought coverage across the U.S. is at its lowest since August 2020 and is likely to continue improving, or end entirely, across much of California and the Great Basin. The spring wet season is expected to improve drought conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains. Current drought conditions in Florida are expected to improve or go away during the next three months.
Areas of extreme to exceptional drought across parts of the southern High Plains are likely to persist through the spring season, with drought also expected to develop into parts of New Mexico. Across parts of the Northwest U.S. and northern Rockies, drought conditions are also expected to continue. Drought may develop into parts of Washington state.
Above-average temperatures are favored for much of the southern and eastern half of the U.S. For April through June, the greatest chance for above-average temperatures exists from the southern High Plains eastward to Florida, and northward along the East Coast. Above-average temperatures are also likely for Hawaii and northern parts of Alaska. Below-average temperatures are predicted for the central Great Basin and the northern Plains.
The extended jet stream remains in place across the Pacific and favors an active storm track into next week. The @NWSCPC is highlighting high risk for heavy precip 3/21-3/27 #CAwx #CAwater #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/SgnuzN8Ca2
— CW3E Scripps (@CW3E_Scripps) March 14, 2023
Parts of central and southern California that were still reeling from heavy snowfall earlier this month received yet another powerful atmospheric river which exited the region on March 15. Flooding, landslides, power outages, and evacuations are among the many impacts residents faced from the recent storm. The above graphic depicts most of the state receiving between 300-600% of normal precipitation over the last seven days. — USDA Water and Climate Update
NOAA forecasters predict above-average precipitation this spring across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Below-average precipitation is most likely for the Southwest and parts of the Pacific Northwest.
After three nasty years, the La Niña weather phenomenon that increases Atlantic hurricane activity and worsens western drought is gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
That’s usually good news for the United States and other parts of the world, including drought-stricken northeast Africa, scientists said.
Meteorologist Bo Svoma hopped down into the 4-foot-deep pit he had shoveled and grinned like a school kid on a snow day.
“Bo is happy!” shouted one of his Salt River Project colleagues working snow survey duty on Tuesday.
There’s a lot for the metro Phoenix water supplier to be happy about this winter. What was supposed to be an unusually dry winter because of the return of the ocean and atmospheric phenomenon known as La Nińa has instead shaped up as the Arizona rim country’s second-snowiest season in 30 years.
Ever since the late December and January deluge, California has been pretty dry.
Since the beginning of February, Sacramento Executive Airport has recorded 0.56″ of rain. The relatively dry weather since mid-January allowed the state to dry out and lowered flood risk, but another storm cycle heading into the dry season would be incredibly beneficial in terms of breaking out of drought.
New data show a snowy start to 2023 for the Colorado River basin. Inflows into Lake Powell, the nation’s second largest reservoir, are currently projected to be 117% of average during spring runoff thanks to heavy winter precipitation in the Rocky Mountains.
The beleaguered river is shrinking due to climate change and steady demand. Scientists say this winter’s snow may provide a temporary boost to major reservoirs, but will not provide enough water to fix the Southwest’s supply-demand imbalance.
The new year started off with a parade of storms, leading to San Francisco and the wider Bay Area seeing one of its rainiest time frames since the Gold Rush era. This onslaught of storms seemed a bit out of place with the trend of La Niña, an outlook that traditionally brings warm, dry conditions to most of California. Instead, the first half of the 2022-23 winter season was marked by atmospheric river-enhanced storms and notable reductions in drought conditions across the state. And chances persist for some rain showers to hit California in the coming days to weeks.
As critical areas of the Pacific Ocean warm and the world marches out of a La Niña towards neutral status, North America might be in store for changes in weather patterns not seen in several years.
A rare triple-dip La Niña has been in place since 2020 and was one of the main driving forces behind megadroughts, severe weather outbreaks and hurricanes.
She’s baaaack! For the past two years, La Niña, the cooling of ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, has wreaked havoc on weather around the globe. Now the World Meteorological Organization expects the phenomenon to return for a third consecutive year, a rare occurrence that forecasters predict could bring wackier-than-usual winter weather to the West, once again.
California, particularly Northern California, was walloped by a major winter rain and snow storm last week and meteorologists expect that high levels of precipitation will continue for at least another week. Despite some damage and at least one death from local flooding and tree-toppling high winds, the storm and the predictions of more to come are welcome relief from what had appeared to be a prolonged drought.
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
