Yes, California will have another multi-year drought. California has immense hydrologic variability, with more droughts and floods per average year than any other part of the country. California’s water users, managers, and regulators should always be prepared for droughts (and floods). Eventually, California will have a multi-year drought worse than any we have ever seen.
It’s been four years since a protracted drought had Southern Californians taking four-minute showers and turning off the tap during tooth brushing.
Now, with no rain forecast for the foreseeable future and fires once again raging in the southland, the prospect of another drought is looming large, along with its implications.
Amid California’s worst fire season in history, climate experts are predicting hot and dry conditions this winter. “On average there will be less moisture than we would normally receive here in California,” says Dr. Lowell Stott, a professor of earth sciences at the University of Southern California.
California’s water managers on Tuesday preliminarily allocated just 10% of requested water supplies to agencies that together serve more than 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland.
The state Department of Water Resources cited the dry start to the winter rainy season in California’s Mediterranean climate, along with low reservoir levels remaining from last year’s relatively dry winter. Winter snow typically supplies about 30% of the state’s water as it melts.
The Central Coast and parts south are unusually dry, according to the University of Nebraska – Lincoln’s national drought monitor. That could lead to dry soil, increased irrigation, stunted germination of dryland crops and increased risk of fire, the report says.
The days are dry, the Sierra snowpack is thin and the forecast is unfavorable for a wet season in Northern California. Welcome to La Nina. “It might be best just to hope that we get somewhere close to normal,” said meteorologist Craig Shoemaker with the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
With no rain in the forecast for the rest of 2020 — thanks to a La Niña weather pattern pushing storms north of the state — the probability of California entering a multi-year drought is increasing.
Winter is usually the wettest season in Southern California, but due to a strengthening La Niña pattern in the Pacific, this winter is looking warmer and drier than normal. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of what’s known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle. La Niña is the cold phase and develops due to below average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
Record and near-record low flows on the Upper Colorado River this summer and fall have dramatically and abruptly worsened the outlook for the entire river and the Central Arizona Project over the next two years. Low flows into Lake Powell led federal officials to sharply reduce their forecasts for how high Lake Mead will be next year. That has ratcheted up the odds that the first major shortage in CAP deliveries will occur in 2022, cutting off some supplies to Central Arizona farmers.
This winter may seem colder than previous warmer winters Californians have experienced in recent history, because a moderate to strong La Niña is forming over the pacific.
But La Niña, an annual weather pattern off of the Pacific Ocean that often dictates California’s drier conditions in the winter, doesn’t buck global warming trends, according to Michelle Mead, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
Mead says since California is this long skinny state, La Niña’s impact will differ depending on where you live, just like the storm moving across Northern California this week.
The Water News Network is San Diego County’s source for water news and information.
