The odds that the drought-enhancing La Niña will fade by the end of California’s rainy season are rising, offering some hope of an easing of parched conditions across the US West. The Pacific Ocean has a 71% chance of returning to normal temperatures between February and April, bringing an end the La Niña weather pattern that has persisted for three years, the Climate Prediction Center said in a Thursday forecast.
December kicked off with a parade of storms across California, and while the plentiful precipitation is likely good news for California, data shows storage levels at the state’s major water supply reservoirs have not budged much. “We are just now moving into the rainy season,” said Jeanine Jones, interstate resources manager for California’s Department of Water Resources, referring to the months between November and March when much of California’s precipitation is recorded.
Cold, windy and occasionally wet conditions will continue across San Diego County through Wednesday, with widespread rain and mountain snow possible before things warm up later in the week.
“Hazardous travel is expected, especially through the mountains,” according to the National Weather Service.
A winter storm warning will be in effect through 6 p.m. Wednesday in the San Diego County mountains, with snow accumulating up to a foot in some areas, with as much as 18 inches on higher peaks.
Despite San Diego County currently sitting at ‘moderate drought’ status and February bringing no rain so far, the San Diego County Water Authority (SDCWA) says the local water supply is safe.
According to SDCWA Water Resources Manager Jeff Stephenson, they have analyzed the current supply and feel confident that there will not be any water shortages for at least a five-year period because of their preparedness, even if drought status remains.
“We’ve spent 30 years diversifying those supplies so that we have seven, eight different sources of water in the region, so there’s no danger of running out,” said Stephenson.
After two years of solid drought, and four months into California’s “wet” season, we don’t know if this year will be wet or dry. This is normal for California. But this year’s monthly precipitation “whiplash” is unusual.
For northern California, October was the 2nd wettest October in 102 years of record (400% of average October from one 2-day storm!). November was the 31st driest November (50% of average). December was the 23rd wettest December (160% of average), and January was the 7th driest January on record (16% of average).
Snow levels in California have fallen from their December glory after an extraordinarily dry January, stoking fears that the drought will not only continue but worsen in a third difficult year.
State officials, who will conduct the second snow survey of the season Tuesday, will find snowpack in California’s mountains measuring just shy of average for this time of year. While average is better than the modest accumulation seen the past two winters, it’s a disappointing drop from the 160% of average recorded a month ago.
California is nearing that make-or-break point to pick up some rain and snow totals. January has turned out to be a total bust for big storms, continuing that winter whiplash of wet to dry weather.
Almost all the gains we’ve made reducing the severity of our two-year drought came from storms in October and December. In October, those gains were from one big atmospheric river sitting over the state for days. December saw multiple storms ending in a record setting snowiest month for the Sierra.
As the calendar prepares to turn into 2022, Northern California is getting covered with snow, and rainfall in Butte County is leading to more water in Lake Oroville.
As of midnight Tuesday, Lake Oroville had 1,323,897 acre-feet of water in it. While that number is 37% of the lake’s capacity, it also reflects 72% of its average storage his time of year.
A robust atmospheric river storm started to taper off Tuesday morning in the Bay Area after shuttering highways due to flooding and prompting evacuation warnings in areas left scarred by wildfires and susceptible to mudslides and debris flows.
