The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting higher-than-usual rainfall for parts of Nevada, California and Arizona this winter, but that rainfall isn’t expected to translate to gains in the water level at Lake Mead, regional climate experts said.

El Niño’s southern oscillation cycle began changing weather patterns this month and will continue through the winter to bring wetter conditions to the southern United States, said Jon Gottschalck, the operational prediction branch chief for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).