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The end of the historic California drought appears increasingly unlikely, at least anytime soon, with new long-range forecasts hinting at a warm, dry winter for much of the state.

The monthly outlook released Thursday by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center cites a 33 percent chance that significantly below-average precipitation will arrive in San Francisco and points south between December and February. The outlook also identifies a higher probability of above-average temperatures in California south of Monterey Bay over the same period.

California’s decision to let local entities regulate how much water people use has residents hoping their bills will get a little more manageable and their yards a little less ugly. Lee Nguyen, a 64-year-old retiree in Irvine, believes she has done her part to help in the five-year drought. She has swapped out the grass on her front lawn with local native plants and cactus to cut down on water use. She’s also started catching rainwater for her garden to stretch the savings even further.

A state water agency on Tuesday proposed a Northern California man pay $4.6 million in fines and restore wetlands he allegedly damaged while trying to build a kite-surfing hub and revive a duck hunting club in a small island northeast of San Francisco.

The San Francisco Bay Regional Water Quality Control Board said John Sweeney and his Point Buckler Club filled and degraded more than 29 acres of tidal wetlands on the 51-acre Point Buckler Island located in Solano County’s Suisun Marsh.

Agricultural demand for recycled water is increasing along with the ability to supply it. But water experts say competition for access to the resource is rising—and say they’re unsure what the growing demand may mean for prices.

State water officials plan a survey of recycled water use in coming months—the first since 2009, when they estimated use of recycled water at 700,000 acre-feet. Results from the new survey could come early next year.