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Drought Conditions Could Stretch to Spring, Set Stage for Another Rough Fire Season

The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests that California’s persistent drought-like conditions could last through the winter and into spring, possibly fueling another grueling fire season in 2021.

Currently, three-quarters of California is experiencing at least moderate drought conditions.

“Keep in mind, we’re coming off the driest May-through-October period, statewide at least, across California, Arizona and New Mexico,” said Mark Svoboda of the National Drought Mitigation Center in Nebraska.

Forecasting three to four months out is a dodgy proposition for scientists, but NOAA’s modeling shows the likelihood of relatively dry weather through February.

Dry Conditions in California Continue to Expand, but Will March Rains Dent the Drought?

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor data, released Thursday, show that about 48% of California is in moderate drought. That’s up from 34% a week ago.

An additional 30% of the state is abnormally dry, according to the data.

The data were compiled Tuesday, so the figures do not reflect moisture from Southern California’s most recent storm.

California Drought: Northern California Having Driest February Since 1864

With unusually dry, hot weather continuing for weeks on end and the driest February in the Bay Area in 156 years, nearly a quarter of California’s land area now is under drought conditions, federal officials announced Thursday.

Altogether, 23.3% of the state is in “moderate drought” — up from 9.5% last week, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly report issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.