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More Evidence that California Weather is Trending Toward Extremes

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A team led by Kristen Guirguis, a climate researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, found evidence that the risk of hazardous weather is increasing in the Southwest.

The researchers investigated the daily relationships among four major modes of weather affecting California. How they interact governs the formation of weather events such as atmospheric rivers capable of bringing torrential rains and Santa Ana winds that can spread devastating wildfires.

“This study suggests that weather patterns are changing in a way that enhances hot, dry Santa Ana winds, while reducing precipitation frequency in the Southwest,” said Guirguis. “These changes in atmospheric circulation are raising the risk of wildfires during California winters.”

The study, “Winter wet—dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California,” was published in the journal Climate Dynamics July 17, 2022.

Flooding in Elk Grove, California.Dillard Road is flooded near the Hwy 99 off ramp, located south of Elk Grove, California. Photo credit: Florence Low / California Department of Water Resources.

The basis of the research was an examination of the dominant atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Pacific Ocean, known as Baja-Pacific, Alaskan-Pacific, Canadian-Pacific, and Offshore-California modes. What distinguishes them from each other are the relative positions of ridges and troughs in the atmosphere.

Weather patterns and a warmer atmosphere

The research team identified 16 recurring weather patterns that are created daily as these modes interact with each other. One product of the work was a summary of California weather patterns from 1949 to 2017. The patterns associated with the formation of dry gusty Santa Ana winds that often stoke Southern California fires are becoming more frequent. Patterns associated with what might be considered “normal” rainfall are decreasing in the Southwest thus promoting drought, but patterns associated with extreme precipitation and strong atmospheric river episodes have remained steady over the study period. The researchers noted that while the patterns associated with heavy precipitation and strong atmospheric rivers have not changed in frequency, a warmer atmosphere is capable of holding more water so these storms are becoming more damaging.

Challenges for wildfire and water resource management

The results suggest an increasing probability of compounding environmental hazards during California winters, said the research team. Though winter atmospheric rivers are the antithesis of hot, dry Santa Ana wind conditions, sequences of wildfires followed by strong atmospheric rivers often compound the damage from fires when they trigger flash floods and destructive debris flows from burn scars.

Photo of the Thomas Fire taken from a Santa Barbara beach. Photo credit: Carsten Schertzer / iStock.

“This spells challenges for wildfire and water resource management and provides observational support to our previous results projecting that California will increasingly have to depend on potentially hazardous atmospheric rivers and floodwater for water resource generation in a warming climate,” said study co-author Alexander Gershunov, a Scripps Oceanography climate scientist.

Study authors say this work is helping to inform an experimental subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast product being developed at Scripps Oceanography’s Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) that predicts extreme weather in California including atmospheric river landfalls, Santa Ana winds, drought, and heat waves.

The U.S. Department of the Interior via the Bureau of Reclamation and the Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, the California Department of Water Resources, and the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) California—Nevada Climate Applications Program and the International Research Applications Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration funded the study. Additional funding was provided by the University of California Office of the President MRPI grant.

High water levels on the Tuolumne River close River Road in the city of Modesto, California.High water levels on the Tuolumne River close River Road in the city of Modesto, California, part of Stanislaus County. Photo credit: Dale Kolke / California Department of Water Resources.

The San Diego County Water Authority has a partnership with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego to better predict atmospheric rivers and improve water management before, during and after seasonal storms.

(Editors Note: Study co-authors include Benjamin Hatchett of the Desert Research Institute in Nevada; Tamara Shulgina, Michael DeFlorio, Rosana Aguilera, achel Clemesha, Tom Corringham, Luca Delle Monache, and Marty Ralph of CW3E at Scripps Oceanography; Aneesh Subramanian and David Reynolds of the University of Colorado Boulder; Janin Guzman-Morales of the University of California Santa Barbara; and Alex Tardy and Ivory Small of the National Weather Service.)

San Diego County Water Authority Water Resources Specialist Efren Lopez joined CBS 8’s Carlo Cechetto to discuss additional ways San Diegans can reduce their water use. Photo: CBS 8 water saving tips

Water Authority Offers Water Saving Tips on CBS 8

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As the current drought stretches into a third year, the San Diego County Water Authority is providing water saving tips as part of a drought survival kit to San Diegans.

Scientists confirm California and the Southwest U.S. is experiencing the worst megadrought in the last 1,200 years. It has prompted Governor Gavin Newsom to order new emergency water rules and cutbacks with the goal of preparing the state for a 10% decrease in the available water supply by 2040.

“The hots are getting a lot hotter, the dries are getting a lot drier and … the wets are getting wetter,” Newsom said in announcing the plan at a desalination plant under construction in Antioch, 45 miles inland from San Francisco, that will turn brackish water into drinking water.

Water saving tips

Many years ago, San Diego regional water leaders had the foresight to call for conservation efforts to help build our resilience. Now we are in a more fortunate position thanks to our diversified water supply than much of the state.

San Diegans have learned how to conserve water, but there is always more we can do. San Diego County Water Authority Water Resources Specialist Efren Lopez joined CBS 8 Anchor and Reporter Carlo Cecchetto on the news program “The Four” to discuss the Governor’s report and offer additional ways San Diegans can reduce water use.

Water conservation is a way of life

“San Diego’s great at conservation. Conservation is a way of life here, but there is always something more we can do,” said Lopez. He suggests homeowners use a shutoff nozzle when hand watering using their garden hose and test soil with a moisture sensor to determine when soil is dry enough before irrigating.

In addition to water-saving measures, San Diego County residents can take advantage of the Water Authority’s rebate programs for turf replacement, irrigation devices, and WaterSmart landscape gardens. Countywide, San Diegans have removed more than one million square feet of turf through rebate programs, resulting in annual water savings of 36.5 million gallons.

“In San Diego, we’ve been diversifying our water supply for decades,” said Lopez. “So we’re prepared for this drought. It’s great to see the governor supportive of resilient supplies and a portfolio approach to our water supply so that we don’t rely on just one source.”

Lopez encouraged San Diego County residents to get additional tips for saving water at www.watersmartSD.org.

Governor’s Resilience Strategy Promotes Needed Investments in Water Reliability

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Aug. 11, 2022 – Sandra L. Kerl, general manager of the San Diego County Water Authority, issued the following statement in response to the water supply strategy released today by Gov. Newsom.

“Gov. Newsom has shown remarkable leadership dealing with extreme drought conditions, and his new strategy to improve California’s water resilience is another important step to protect the state’s economy and quality of life. The governor’s approach aligns closely with the Water Authority’s 30-year strategy that combines new supplies, infrastructure upgrades and conservation.

“While conservation has become a way of life in San Diego County, it’s clear that we cannot conserve our way out of the more frequent severe droughts afflicting the arid West. Both here and across the state, we must continue making strategic investments in supply reliability. We support state efforts to promote long-term thinking and the development of infrastructure to increase our capacity for water storage, water production, and water distribution. Those efforts are already well underway in the San Diego region, where our member agencies are developing repurification plants that extend our supplies by treating wastewater to drinking water standards.

“We applaud Gov. Newsom and the state for continued coordination and consideration of the unique hydrology of California’s different communities as they address long-term water supplies and the aridification of the West. We also welcome former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to the governor’s water leadership team. His experience and know-how will be critical to rapidly deploying solutions that are so urgently needed statewide and securing federal funds for that work.

“As we collectively work to improve California’s water supply, state and federal agencies have an opportunity and a responsibility to help pay for needed upgrades to ensure that safe and reliable water supplies are available and affordable for every Californian.”

— Sandra L. Kerl, General Manager, San Diego County Water Authority

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Fallbrook Public Utility District changes the painted numbers on its Rattlesnake Tank to reflect the year incoming seniors at Fallbrook High School will graduate. Photo: Fallbrook Public Utility District

Rattlesnake Tank Gets Class of 2023 Makeover

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The Fallbrook Public Utility District’s water storage tank uphill from South Mission Road has received a fresh set of painted numbers the past 40 years, but not everyone knows the story behind the annual makeover.

FPUD crews change the painted numbers on the tank to reflect the year incoming seniors at Fallbrook High School will graduate. A two-person team made up of district employees Colter Shannon (who also did it last year) and Martin Serrano performed the August task, painting over the “22” and changing it to “23” to welcome the graduating class of 2023.

It took district staff about five hours to paint the 25-foot-tall numbers onto the 3.6 million-gallon tank. Staff compressed the job, through the magic of time-lapse video, to about eight seconds.

“Parents and Fallbrook High seniors anxiously await the painting of the tank and begin calling the office early in June to find out when we’re doing it,” said Noelle Denke, FPUD public affairs officer. “This year, it’s especially exciting for them because so many of them are back on campus and need something to look forward to.”

Prior to painting the tank about four decades ago, Fallbrook High seniors would climb up the hill in the middle of the night as a traditional dare, scale the tank and then paint it themselves.

Because their annual antics took place at a significant height and in the dark, FPUD staff became concerned for student safety. Workers first tried installing a fence to prevent access by the yearly stealth painting crew.

The fence failed to deter the enterprising students. Instead, they began jumping the fence later at night. District officials struck a deal with the students. If they stopped risking their safety for the dare, FPUD would safely paint the tank yearly to commemorate them.

“We’ve been doing it ever since,” said Denke.

A 25-foot salute to Fallbrook High’s graduating seniors   

Rattlesnake Tank

One of the last attempts by Fallbrook High School students to paint the tank themselves in 1981. Photo: Fallbrook Public Utility District

Since the tank shares the space with several cell towers, Fallbrook Public Utility District arranges with them to power down their towers. Then crews safely hoist themselves up to the tower and get to work painting.

Rattlesnake Tank was built in the early 1950s and is one of Fallbrook’s oldest and most visible water tanks.

(Editor’s note: The Fallbrook Public Utility District is one of the San Diego County Water Authority’s 24 member agencies that deliver water across the metropolitan San Diego region.)

L to R: Governor Gavin Newsom; Clifford Chan, East Bay Municipal Utility District: Rick Cailender, Valley Water District; Joaquin Esquivel, State Water Resources Control Board; and Sandy Kerl, San Diego County Water Authority met on July 29 to discuss ways to maximize water supplies. Photo: San Diego County Water Authority water savings

Urban Water Suppliers Report Water Savings Progress Statewide

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Following Governor Gavin Newsom’s recent executive order and a State Water Board emergency regulation, members of the California Urban Water Agencies, or CUWA, including the San Diego County Water Authority continue to advance water-saving efforts, yielding measurable results.

These efforts come on the back of the driest first quarter in California’s history, which prompted the Governor to call for local water conservation steps rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. As severe drought conditions persist, state and local agencies are working together to support the Governor’s call to action and lower water use across all sectors through a variety of measures.

“Water conservation a way of life”

“Governor Newsom has demonstrated strong leadership in directing water agencies to implement actions that are the best fit for the communities we serve,” said Water Authority General Manager and CUWA Board Chair Sandy Kerl. “We look forward to continued collaboration at the state and local level as we collectively prepare for a more resilient future.”

“While we have made historic investments to protect our communities, economy, and ecosystems from the worsening drought across the West, it is clear we need to do more,” said Governor Newsom in a press release. “Amid climate-driven extremes in weather, we must all continue to do our part and make water conservation a way of life.”

Water savings increase; long-term drought resilience the goal

Carlsbad Desalination Plant-Water Supply Portfolio-desalination

The Carlsbad Desalination Plant uses reverse osmosis to produce approximately 10% of the region’s water supply; it is a core supply regardless of weather conditions, and it is blended with water from other sources for regional distribution. Photo: San Diego County Water Authority

Over the past few months, the Governor has convened a series of meetings with local water agencies, including Kerl and other CUWA representatives, to discuss progress and call for continued action. Since the first meeting in May, Californians have made substantial progress in conservation. Preliminary numbers suggest overall water use was down 7.5% in June compared to June 2020.

Based on an analysis of provisional data, CUWA agencies anticipate even greater water savings in July — about 10% on average compared to 2020, with several agencies exceeding 15% savings. This is due to significant investments in conservation rebates, turf replacement programs, public messaging, and outreach including stringent water use restrictions where necessary.

Beyond the immediate need for water conservation, Governor Newsom supports long-term drought resilience. “We are dealing with a changed climate in California that demands we reimagine not just how we use water, but how we capture, store and distribute it throughout the state,” Newsom said in a recent meeting.

In alignment with state priorities, CUWA members continue to invest in storage and drought-resilient supplies, such as water reuse and desalination, through local and collaborative regional efforts.

Sweetwater Authority Logo 2019Sweetwater Authority Logo 2019

Sweetwater Authority’s New Scholarship Program Supports Careers In The Water Industry

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Chula Vista, Calif. – Sweetwater Authority (Authority) recently launched a new scholarship program to provide funding for people interested in pursuing a career in the water industry. The Work for Water Scholarship is available to anyone living in the Authority’s service area.

Two $1,000 scholarships will be awarded to new or currently enrolled students at the Center for Water Studies at Cuyamaca College or another accredited college, community college or trade school with a career goal in the water industry.

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Padre Dam Board Vice President James Peasley Passes Away

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Santee, Calif. – Padre Dam Municipal Water District’s longtime Board member and Board Vice President James Peasley passed away on August 2. Board President Bill Pommering shares, “I have been honored to work with Jim for over a decade. Our community has lost a friend and a champion of serving the water needs of our community. Our prayers are with his wife Linda and his entire family.”

James Peasley served on Padre Dam’s Board of Directors for the last twelve years since 2010. He served as Board President in 2014 & 2019 and Vice President in 2013, 2018 & 2022. Additionally, he made significant contributions as a representative on the San Diego Metro Commission/Metro Wastewater Joint Powers Authority, San Diego Area Wastewater Management Committee, and the Santee Chamber of Commerce.

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Olivenhain Municipal Water District Logo landscape design workshops

Manchester Pipeline Projects Continue with Installation of Recycled Water Pipeline

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Encinitas, Calif. — Olivenhain Municipal Water District is beginning construction this week on a new recycled water pipeline in Encinitas along Manchester Avenue and South El Camino Real from Via Poco to Tennis Club Drive. Once complete, customers connecting to this new pipeline will irrigate with recycled water, which will reduce demand for imported potable water by more than 10 million gallons every year.

Recycled water is a sustainable water source that reduces the region’s dependence on imported water. OMWD is currently meeting approximately 14% of its total water demands using locally supplied recycled water for irrigation.

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Olivenhain Municipal Water District-recycled water pipeline-construction

Manchester Pipeline Projects Continue with Installation of Recycled Water Pipeline

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Olivenhain Municipal Water District is beginning construction this week on a new recycled water pipeline in Encinitas along Manchester Avenue and South El Camino Real from Via Poco to Tennis Club Drive. Once complete, customers connecting to this new pipeline will irrigate with recycled water, which will reduce demand for imported potable water by more than 10 million gallons every year.

Recycled water is a sustainable water source that reduces the region’s dependence on imported water. OMWD is currently meeting approximately 14% of its total water demands using locally supplied recycled water for irrigation.

Recycled water pipeline

“Recycled water is a critical tool in our effort to diversify our water supply and reduce the impacts of drought,” said OMWD Board President Larry Watt. “By converting from potable to recycled water for irrigation, this project has become yet another example of how we can significantly reduce our potable water consumption.”

This new pipeline is an element of the larger North San Diego County Regional Recycled Water Project — a collaborative effort among nine North County agencies that coordinate across jurisdictional boundaries. The water that OMWD will deliver through the new pipeline is produced at San Elijo Joint Powers Authority’s water reclamation facility in Cardiff.

Cost-effective for water ratepayers

OMWD has aggressively sought grant funding for this project to make it cost-effective for ratepayers. The efforts have been successful, with OMWD achieving $1,350,000 from California’s Department of Water Resources for two separate segments of the pipeline, and approximately $400,000 from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Title XVI Water Reclamation and Reuse Program.

The project is expected to be completed in 2023 and progress updates can be found at www.olivenhain.com/projects and by following OMWD on Facebook and Twitter.

Map-Olivenhain Municipal Water District-recycled water pipeline-construction

Manchester Avenue potable water pipeline replacement project completed

Earlier this year, the Olivenhain Municipal Water District completed the Manchester Avenue Potable Water Pipeline Project. In total, 3,700 linear feet of aged potable water pipeline was replaced along Manchester Avenue, Rancho Santa Fe Road and Encinitas Boulevard.

(Editor’s note: The Olivenhain Municipal Water District is one of the San Diego County Water Authority’s 24 member agencies that deliver water across the metropolitan San Diego region.)

Agencies Cooperating to Refurbish Reservoir for Recycled Water

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As drought conditions worsen in California, the San Elijo Joint Powers Authority is partnering with the San Dieguito and Olivenhain Municipal water districts to expand water recycling in north San Diego County.

The three districts’ cooperation in the planning and building of recycled water infrastructure dates to the early 1990s. Today, the agencies are planning a $2.2 million rehabilitation of the Wanket Reservoir. The San Dieguito and Olivenhain water districts built the 3-million-gallon reservoir in 1974.

The concrete tank, which overlooks the Encinitas Ranch Golf Course east of Quail Gardens Drive, was last used to store potable water in 2008, as water conservation efforts and more-efficient indoor plumbing rendered the tank unnecessary.

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