That’s because in the past, strong La Niña events typically bring warm, dry winters in Southern California. However, when there is a weak La Niña or none at all, odds are better we might see a regular winter with average rainfall.

“I’d say that’s a reasonable bet,” said Michael Jacox, an ocean scientist with the Southwest Fisheries Science Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Fellow NOAA researchers said Thursday that chances a La Niña will form this fall are about 55 to 60%.