Lacking current polling data, it could be hard to determine if more people believe in El Niño or the Great Pumpkin. El Niño has fallen on hard times. Once considered a fairly reliable indicator of a wet winter in much of California, in recent years the periodic phenomenon has produced little rain and a growing number of doubters. And that puts participants in the Union-Tribune’s 17th annual Precipitation Prediction Contest, launching today, in a bit of a quandary. Should they maintain a sincere belief in El Niño, like Linus and the Great Pumpkin, or move on like Sally after she realized she had wasted Halloween night in the pumpkin patch? Because El Niño is coming. Again. Probably.