In the past, powerful El Niños have typically delivered about 22 inches of rain to the city by this time; the current amount is far below that. To reach the El Niño average of 30 inches by the beginning of summer, the NWS writes, “we would need more than two tenths of an inch every day through the end of May.”

That seemed improbable a few days ago — and still iffy today — but there’s a developing weather pattern that’s boding drenching days ahead for drought-struck California. Weather models are predicting torrential rains through the weekend, with more than 12 inches of precipitation possible in the mountains.